Dax - Update

[Steely Dan]

Here are my latest thoughts on the Dax. Caveat - Spread betting provider's data - however the Dax made a new high on 21st June, which means the flash crash was just a flash in the pan for it. I also have trouble counting 5 waves up from the flash crash low to the high so it looks more like a 'b' wave top to me. I can't remember when the next major Bradley turn date is though 9th August rings a bell and I would not be amazed if we put in a final high proximate to that date what with the European bank stress test results pointing to no stress at all.

[Steely Dan]

Trying to step inside the last move up I see the prospect of a sharp rise Monday

[TS Hennessy]

After that high the action continued. We have talked recently about
the closed session gaps.

This Crude chart may add some extra detail.


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[Steely Dan]

Hi Tom,

Thanks I'll bear that in mind. The Dax seems to be heading up again after a deep consolidation yesterday. If/When we see a new 2010 high I'll be on reversal alert.

Dan

[Steely Dan]

Ok to continue, starting with the 5 min chart. Top of something was signaled when the red line was crossed. I was not of the opinion that this was a major pivot because my larger degree count called for one more 2010 high - I actually suspected this to be the case as the reiterating rtb behaviour I (think I) was seeing was a little too far from new 2010 highs to suspect we would reach it so quickly. Hence I was seeing terminating behavior for 5 of 3 of C. The 4 hour chart updates the longer term roadmap.

[theoryman]

Steely,

Thanks for showing the blown count on 5 min, I can understand how you thought the last c was going to be over there, fitted in nicely before it got back to the green 4 level.

From what I can see it would be a very straight forward process to label the internals that give you that count for the c being over.

Now ignore your count and see the simple three wave move from the b to your c.

From what I can see it would be a very straight forward process to label the internals that give you that count for the c NOT being over.

In order to differentiate between the two, it would be necessary to get inside the 5min and hopefully that would allow clarification.

I have a very sneaky idea that I am going to work on - if it works out I'll post it on here.

cheers theory

[theoryman]

Suppose you were doing an after the event analysis concerning the possible validity of the RTB.

How about in this example? Put in the internal subwaves that show what happened.

   

Now do the same for this one. Clean sheet, open mind.....

   

I hope this will bring home what I mean by hindsight bias and confirmation bias. After the event, we as humans are great at seeing what happened and finding the evidence to support it.

cheers theory

[Steely Dan]

Thanks for that Theory, I'll chew that over later. It's getting exciting this! Dax only 51 points off a 2010 high. I am wondering whether Tom's cable prediction of above 1.70 may be coincidental with stocks topping - it is certainly on a burn at the mo and I note the S&P is heading up trying to erase a divergence with the Dax. At least we don't have to play charge of the light brigade based on overbought indicators.

[Steely Dan]

The law of sod is a powerful timing tool - major pivots will likely happen when you have precious little time to trade. The Dax appears to be getting ever nearer a conclusion. We now have a new level to watch of 6261, some 200 points above the last key level.

[Steely Dan]

My long hit it's limit last night with the new 2010 high. We look nearly cooked!
2 Charts, first an unlabeled daily chart to show the ending diagonal I would previously observed, I show it because experience has told me that an escape above the upper line could mean much further to travel. The 5 min chart, I could barely get inside the spike high on a 10 tick chart, but I'm calling it a 'b' wave so one more high then a retreat below 6321 has me calling top.