Latest S & P 500 Count

[theoryman]

(08-02-2010 11:09 AM)finster869 Wrote:  Theory- Can you post your big picture chart (daily view perhaps)? Thanks.

"No reason of course why the RTBs were at the same degree in the individual bigger pictures - so maybe I shouldn't have been surprised at all."

I was just thinking aloud about an assumption that was lingering in the back of my mind. I don't do Daily charts for a couple of reasons.

Firstly, my supplier of free data/chart drawing tools/ programming software is a Spread Betting company and they define Daily as 00:00 to 23:59, not market open hours. [For intraday candles I can filter out the market open ones provided I use 30 min or lower - 13 candles fit the six and a half opening hours.]

Secondly, when I go inside the Daily count I seem to generate two possible counts. For example on the FTSE I had a confirmed final 5th, the Pivot was in. When I checked there were two viable counts, one where the previous 4th had an RTB and one where it didn't.

My approach is to trade the trend after the Pivot, try to build a cheap / paid for postion and exit on the next Pivot confirmation at the same degree.

In terms of a daily count on DOW and S&P I don't see how "fat finger Thursday" is dealt with. Was the market liquid? Was the data valid? [In addition, IMO intraday gaps are like closed sessions, no trades take place]. Could be a case of what you want to find, you will find.

The FTSE and the DAX do not have that problem since they were both closed, which is why I am trying to get a synchronised Pivot on all four - I seem to be getting three out of the four to do it at the moment.

cheers theory

[theoryman]

FTSE and DAX counts both blown by a maximum of a couple of points, during spike 15:00 and 15:01 (Zulu+1) candles on the SB company data, will check later on real market data.

S&P and DOW both behaving themselves.

cheers theory

[theoryman]

Here's the S&P count I was referring to - usual personal way of showing the wave "count".

The last section is difficult to read IMO, hence the inverted commas around the fives and threes. As long as it stays above the pink line at the level of the last 4A, then the RTB is either maybe still in action or it could be over (cannot find confirmation of this at lower time settings).

Apologies cannot get my picture to appear as it normally does.


  S&P for NEWR board 1.bmp (Size: 234.49 KB / Downloads: 35)

Trading the trend would mean staying below the last 4A until the RTB is confirmed as over, then it's personal preference e.g. ride out small 4C, cover any 4C, close and await end of 4C then back in again .....

cheers theory

[finster869]

My counts from earlier in the year remain alive. I still have us having already topped, and show us starting (iii) of (3).

   

   

We just had a technical analysis "hindenburg omen" triggered. Would expect nothing less when commencing a (iii) of (3).

[finster869]

Tom- Can you post your updated S&P chart?