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Latest S & P 500 Count
10-12-2010, 09:35 PM
Post: #221
RE: Latest S & P 500 Count
(10-12-2010 02:26 PM)TS Hennessy Wrote:  Don't buy in to the latest hype about computer trading. Smile

You'll see it will come around to include some more unnecessary
regulation from Congress in the end.

Some food for thought:

A) There are already triggers to halt trading if there is mass panic

B) The degree of scale now constructing Cycle pieces very near to
a Supercycle pivot Requires extreme volatility

C) People program the computers


So yes Virginia, there is a Santa Claus.

He was around in the 1930's and still around today and he makes the
NEWR work all the time.

Wink

PS. I was in the hospital for 6 days and am recuperating at home.
It was one of those minor things that you don't know is going to
become serious so you don't take the proper steps right away.

Thanks to 3kings for doing some moderating during that time.

Smile

Welcome back, TS. I wish you a speedy recovery!
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10-12-2010, 09:46 PM
Post: #222
RE: Latest S & P 500 Count
(10-12-2010 02:07 PM)spike1 Wrote:  
(10-12-2010 01:32 PM)finster869 Wrote:  New High. So, either: (1) our count was wrong; (2) the new rule doesn't work; or (3) the new rule used to work, but now that there are nothing but computers trading against one another all day social behavior is no longer accurately portrayed in the market.

For now, I will continue to go with number 1, but having been at this for many, many months I certainly can't say that #2 and/or #3 is not correct.

Hi Finster

Perhaps we could consider this as another option. Let me know what you think ok.Cool

This is that final c4 I got.



Blown up to see the whole c4



Bigger picture

Spike- The 3rd c4 on your chart (1161ish) can't be a "c4" if 1155.71 is a "c4" (otherwise there would have been a pivot, which there was not since we made a new high).
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10-12-2010, 10:13 PM
Post: #223
RE: Latest S & P 500 Count
Hello finster, spike,

I’ve been lurking, and learning a lot from watching your counts. Thanks!

I’d like to throw out an idea. Looking back through the thread, on 9/22 spike1 posted a chart of the move up from the C4 on Aug 27th at 1046. It looks like he had the 1105 high on 9/3 as a 3 in the move up from Aug 27th. finster replied: “I concur”. Is that where you still have 3? I did not see anything to indicate otherwise, but may have missed it.

What if that 3 was of the next lower degree and the 3 of the move from Aug 27th was the 1148 on 9/21. If so, it would mean you were not as far along in the move from Aug 27th as it appeared, so current developments might be more expected.

I hope that makes sense.

   
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10-13-2010, 05:02 AM
Post: #224
RE: Latest S & P 500 Count
Welcome back Tom, I hope you are on the mend, it's a reminder that health trumps money every time. I agree that 1155.7 is the closest 4c. No need to look in detail till the Nas copies the Dax and makes a new 2010 high. The lack of pullbacks is actually encouraging for me from a NewR user in that it has kept me from going short when every other measure would have normally done so. Furthermore I've been able to go long at times when I hitherto would never have dreamed of doing.

Dan

P.S Today smells to me like topping behavior in a 'b' wave.


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10-13-2010, 05:52 AM (This post was last modified: 10-13-2010 05:55 AM by spike1.)
Post: #225
RE: Latest S & P 500 Count
Hi guys

Well Tom I hope you feeling better. We've been having some good fun trying to nail this sucker and I think Santa is just around the cornerBig Grin. Finster, you being right about that 3rd c4 of mine led me to consider those options on your previous post more closely and I couldnt help but to come to this conclusion. Until the S&P breaks above 1219.80 the rule is still in effect which leaves no other option but to go with your option 1. Our count is out. Something that has always been working on my mind is that non retrending b that I posted on a tick chart a while earlier which Ive reposted below. Either way you look at that, even on a 5min chart, its a non retrending b and a rule is a rule right. which would make for good practice to eliminate that c4. (just my opionon though). Ive posted another chart with a count that corrisponds to that non retrending b and it looks to me like we are still missing 1 more c4 before we pivot. Dan smells a b today, I must say I smell one too. I've posted that last c4 I have there in a 1 minute frame so chime in guys and let me know what you think. Perry, a few posts back we covered that option and came to the conclusion that the iii you have posted there (which Incendently I also previously considered and posted) is a B because what followes is a definate c4 clear as day. Take care guys and lets see what today bringsCool

   

   

   

   
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10-13-2010, 01:52 PM
Post: #226
RE: Latest S & P 500 Count
Anybody have 1179.25 has the highest c4?
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10-13-2010, 02:16 PM
Post: #227
RE: Latest S & P 500 Count
(10-13-2010 01:52 PM)finster869 Wrote:  Anybody have 1179.25 has the highest c4?

Small as it is, sure looks like a c4 to me.
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10-14-2010, 02:31 AM
Post: #228
RE: Latest S & P 500 Count
1177.4 And I wouldn't bet the farm on that. By the way I can't post the link but I suggest you google FED POMO dates to get a handle on when they will juice the markets. P.S Opex next week and the Fed is usually a heavy net buyer around this time.
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10-14-2010, 01:01 PM
Post: #229
RE: Latest S & P 500 Count
Hi Guys

Is anyone else seeing this same picture??

   
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10-14-2010, 01:06 PM
Post: #230
RE: Latest S & P 500 Count
YES, I see that (and the non-retrending b), leading to a conclusion that the top is in. While I think a top may be in, I'll feel better when we drop below 1155.71. Also, having been through this during the never ending wave spanning February to April, don't get too aggressive or confident that we have topped. My recollection is that we had several false confirmations of a top and kept changing our counts.
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