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First try at S & P
03-05-2010, 07:35 PM
Post: #31
RE: First try at S & P
Finster, I do like that count. The FTSE has joined the SMI at a new high, but other indices such as the Hang Seng and ASX have not - It would seem the weaker the economy the stronger the stock market. I have something on the Hang Seng to post separately save to say I'm largely in agreement with your S&P count though it is possible that pink B is aleady in and next comes the potentially great variability of green (iv) which could hold 1100 or go back all the way to 1045 ish.

Here's some speculation not counting, but if Tom's cable count is correct I see the UK economy needs to generate some pre-election euphoria and this is not consistent imho with the bottom falling out of stock markets just yet. Glad I chanced upon NewR though, without it I'd have to seriously consider becoming a long term bull.
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03-05-2010, 08:26 PM (This post was last modified: 03-05-2010 09:51 PM by finster869.)
Post: #32
RE: First try at S & P
(03-05-2010 07:35 PM)Steely Dan Wrote:  Finster, I do like that count. The FTSE has joined the SMI at a new high, but other indices such as the Hang Seng and ASX have not - It would seem the weaker the economy the stronger the stock market. I have something on the Hang Seng to post separately save to say I'm largely in agreement with your S&P count though it is possible that pink B is aleady in and next comes the potentially great variability of green (iv) which could hold 1100 or go back all the way to 1045 ish.

Here's some speculation not counting, but if Tom's cable count is correct I see the UK economy needs to generate some pre-election euphoria and this is not consistent imho with the bottom falling out of stock markets just yet. Glad I chanced upon NewR though, without it I'd have to seriously consider becoming a long term bull.


Looking forward to seeing your chart. Please post it when you get a chance.

You may be right about Pink "B" being finished. Here is a 5 minute chart. A break 1134.38 would help support that "B" has completed.


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03-06-2010, 10:26 AM (This post was last modified: 03-06-2010 12:31 PM by finster869.)
Post: #33
RE: First try at S & P
If consensus is wrong and we did not top at 1150, how does this look as the count from the March 2009 low?


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03-07-2010, 01:41 AM (This post was last modified: 03-07-2010 01:46 AM by Steely Dan.)
Post: #34
RE: First try at S & P
(03-06-2010 10:26 AM)finster869 Wrote:  If consensus is wrong and we did not top at 1150, how does this look as the count from the March 2009 low?

I see your point, and for the FTSE that is already a 'live' question. One more possibility would be if you counted the January fall as a 3 then could it be A of your red (4) instead of C, in which case an RTB - B wave would be already underway. If you look at the enclosed ASX chart it has a '3' look to it and could bring into play the paradox where new highs would actually be more bearish than a failure to make new highs when views over a longer period.


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03-07-2010, 07:26 AM (This post was last modified: 03-07-2010 04:25 PM by finster869.)
Post: #35
RE: First try at S & P
(03-07-2010 01:41 AM)Steely Dan Wrote:  
(03-06-2010 10:26 AM)finster869 Wrote:  If consensus is wrong and we did not top at 1150, how does this look as the count from the March 2009 low?

I see your point, and for the FTSE that is already a 'live' question. One more possibility would be if you counted the January fall as a 3 then could it be A of your red (4) instead of C, in which case an RTB - B wave would be already underway. If you look at the enclosed ASX chart it has a '3' look to it and could bring into play the paradox where new highs would actually be more bearish than a failure to make new highs when views over a longer period.

Hi Steely. Is something like the attached chart what you are suggesting? If so, I think the first one looks better from a technical perspective. The RSI is highest right in the heart of the red 3rd wave in the first chart, but not the second chart.


Of course, this helps show that something you said in another post does have some merit:

"your observation as to how much easier it is to work backwards retrospectively. Well a cynic once remarked that Elliott was very clever in constructing a set of rules which were so loose that they could always be applied retrospectively. I could observe that Tom is also very clever as with the new rule always really is ALWAYS - I have seen enough to be convinced of this."

Doesn't it seem that we can always make a count "work" after the fact? Big Grin


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03-07-2010, 04:59 PM
Post: #36
RE: First try at S & P
I still think the consensus chart with the primary wave already having completed looks the best. Now, only if this uptrend would cooperate and end already so the top holds Wink


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04-29-2010, 05:36 AM (This post was last modified: 04-29-2010 05:37 AM by finster869.)
Post: #37
RE: First try at S & P
So, anybody have any guesses where we are on the S&P? I have two different scenarios. One leads to another high, the other leads to S&P dropping below 666


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04-29-2010, 02:35 PM
Post: #38
RE: First try at S & P
Well it's not my 'first' try at S & P...

Here is my take anyway.

   

Smile

TS Hennessy
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04-29-2010, 02:44 PM
Post: #39
RE: First try at S & P
Tom- Thanks for posting. However, I am confused. I see you have us in a c wave, but what is your bigger count (i.e. c of what)? Can you post your S&P d-1 with the larger waves marked? What do you have the 666 bottom marked as?
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04-30-2010, 04:10 PM
Post: #40
RE: First try at S & P
(04-29-2010 02:44 PM)finster869 Wrote:  Tom- Thanks for posting. However, I am confused. I see you have us in a c wave, but what is your bigger count (i.e. c of what)? Can you post your S&P d-1 with the larger waves marked? What do you have the 666 bottom marked as?

Yes that would be better. I have uploaded a new version of the pic with
that detail added. (see my previous post).

Smile

TS Hennessy
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