Latest DOW Count

[TS Hennessy]

Post Your DOW Count Screenshots

This thread will be where the DOW Count charts will go. Feel free to participate. It is lots of fun, helpful to others and great practice.


In the inset of this first pic below the waves that are yet incomplete are greyed out and their placement
does not indicate where price is expected to extend or not extend.
   

In the below pic the degree starts with a Primary B but it should have been Intermediate b.
Please forgive my error. It gets back to the correct labels in the next pic.
   

   

[mathematico]

So, you think we see Depression lows?

[TS Hennessy]

(02-03-2010 12:12 PM)mathematico Wrote:  So, you think we see Depression lows?

No I do not. While the sentiment is driving the market to new lows it
is actually fairly resilient. The possibility exists but that is for another
time not just yet IMO.

[mathematico]

it seems too resilient perhaps. I am not through with all the wave counting but my logic tells me that last 2 days were a bounce in a new downtrend that should retrace back 50% of its illogical rally. does my logic find any support in your waves?
The only thing I don't like is that the buy/sell volume seems to always dip to the sell side, no matter what is it that is being sold.
Look at an up day, look at the order book and you ll see there is more people getting out than getting in. look at a down day and you see the same thing. Very confusing.
Any thoughts?

[TS Hennessy]

(02-03-2010 01:17 PM)mathematico Wrote:  it seems too resilient perhaps. I am not through with all the wave counting but my logic tells me that last 2 days were a bounce in a new downtrend that should retrace back 50% of its illogical rally. does my logic find any support in your waves?
The only thing I don't like is that the buy/sell volume seems to always dip to the sell side, no matter what is it that is being sold.
Look at an up day, look at the order book and you ll see there is more people getting out than getting in. look at a down day and you see the same thing. Very confusing.
Any thoughts?

Yes it certainly feels like there may be 'excesses in the market' as you
hear that phrase used sometimes. I wonder if it is really an excess or
do those very thoughts come from an anticipation for the next move.

If there is anything I could relate to traders from my experience perhaps
one of the most useful might be the understanding that at the same
time the market seems to overdo everything it is in reality never 'too' anything.

Since there is nothing there except action and reaction and a true
representation of opinions on both sides in aggregate it may be a
rather strange dichotomy that might at times reward the complacent
follower and tend to punish the forward looking.

Of course I've certainly been on the too early and the too late
bandwagons, not wanting to leave anything untried.

This is one of the things that makes me intent on seeing what is there.

Those are subjective thoughts so back to the counts and where they
will indicate our next development.

The count showed the ending of an RTB-4th in a bearish correction
which needs wave 5 yet. Further to that and in the latest count pic
wave 1 into the eventual 5th has just been put in.

Therefore you are correct that we have a bounce and we go lower but
we will not stop at 50%. The end of the correction must at least match
March 2009 low and certainly has a much larger drop potential.

The major difference in departure from standard wave counting which
is not aware of New Elliott Wave Rule RTB-4th's is they see the rally off
the March 2009 lows as the lemmings heading to the Edge of the Millenium Cliff.

This is then missing the 5th wave up which takes us to at least the 2007
highs and there is no actual limit to the potential gain there. That would
be getting ahead of ourselves but it is still of importance.

So the best positioning may be short at the top of this Intermediate
wave 2 however after you have been watching these 5's and C's for a
while you will notice that the C inside their RTB-4th's can often come
quite near the start of the 5 or C of which they are a part.

Timing of the full payoff is always trickiest but wave 3 down still lies
directly ahead. It will then extend lower in B after A in the following 4th.

Oops, see what I mean? We haven't finished 2 yet.

[finster869]

TS- Can you post your updated dow chart?

[Raklian]

Dow Jones has just created a new 2010 high. That means either the current C wave of 4th has not finished its course OR the fundamental count has been incorrect somewhere. Can we find out which is it?

[Steely Dan]

This was not unexpected from my viewpoint. If it was easy to arrive at definitive wave counts this would have been automated and sold for an incredible fortune. I do believe the NewR adds something tangible in describing wave behavior, but the complexities involved in counting mean the chances are human error will trip you up somewhere, furthermore it is unclear to me whether counts can ever be set in stone because a government determined enough to manipulate the markets and debase it's own currency can make the market go wherever it wants, until external events take over of course.

That all said I would love to know where we are longer term; My intuition tells me the rallies above January 2010 highs may yet be RTB 4ths and we have C of 4 and a final 5 up this year, but this is just speculation.

[finster869]

(03-17-2010 11:06 PM)Steely Dan Wrote:  This was not unexpected from my viewpoint. If it was easy to arrive at definitive wave counts this would have been automated and sold for an incredible fortune. I do believe the NewR adds something tangible in describing wave behavior, but the complexities involved in counting mean the chances are human error will trip you up somewhere, furthermore it is unclear to me whether counts can ever be set in stone because a government determined enough to manipulate the markets and debase it's own currency can make the market go wherever it wants, until external events take over of course.

That all said I would love to know where we are longer term; My intuition tells me the rallies above January 2010 highs may yet be RTB 4ths and we have C of 4 and a final 5 up this year, but this is just speculation.

Elliott Wave is totally based on social behavior. You raise two interesting points:

1. Does government manipulation take social behavior out of the equation making Elliott Wave no longer useful; and

2. Do all of the computer alogorithm trading programs, which essentially results in the hedge funds/Goldman Sachs' computers trading against one another, remove the human element and social behavior from the equation.

I still have not personally decided whether the NEWR, or the old Elliott Wave Rules, work or not. Obviously, Prechter has been on the wrong side of EVERY trade for the last 8 months. Steely is correct that we often have to go back and change charts, so maybe human application of the the NEWR just leaves too much room for error (or, as someone noted previously, maybe it is a rule that you can apply it after-the-fact to any chart you see). We all have to answer these questions on our own......I personally haven't reached a final determination yet.

Anyway, if this remains a bear market rally with us being in "c" of wave 4, the only count I see that can work is one that Steely has suggested.

I have attached it for the S&P.

[Steely Dan]

Finster, You only have to consider the low volumes of late, the leverage available with derivatives and the advent of robot trading to suspect wave behavior is being distorted. I'm in 100% agreement with your count - by the time we got to the end of 5 the bulls should be 100% convinced we are in a primary wave 3 up, now that would be ironic indeed.