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Hi and thanks for the book.

Tue, 07 Sep 2010 08:35:02 -0500

Tom

Thanks for the e-book. I have been trading since about October 2008 but have only really had about 3 or 4 months trading as I keep blowing my account and then have to save up to start again.

As a consequence I certainly don't have $1-2 or 3000 to spend on the latest trading Guru's latest and greatest training program, and I have always wondered why they don't give you the training for free and then ask for 20% of your profits for the forst year if the program is that good?

Anyhow I have been studying Elliot Wave theory for a full two and a half days now but I have only just downloaded your book and will study it over the next few days.

I look forward to contributing to this site (hopefully), and I would like to say a very big thank you to you and anyone who has helped you to put the book together and this site, and for making it available to us all for free.

One extremely grateful and enthusiastic (budding) Elliotician.

SureShotUK

PS I live in England - hence the UK in the username.

Are we in the C wave of an RTB4 on USD/JPY weekly

Mon, 06 Sep 2010 17:55:41 -0500

Hello All,

I've unplugged the 4th wave cardinal rule, replaced it with this one and begun counting from the 2007 high (still hopefully the start of a 5th wave decline) on the weekly USD/JPY chart using the method outlined in the book and to my surprise we might be right in the middle of the C component of a re-trending B as we speak, but this is my 1st attempt at it and I would like some confirmation Can anyone help on this? it looks a little like the example shown on page 24 of the e-book.

Thanks
Peternz

Getting to the Cardinal nitty gritty

Sun, 05 Sep 2010 23:02:33 -0500

Hi Tom,

WOW!!
I got your ebook yesterday and thought OK simple, an expanded flat in every 4th subwave of every 5th wave of any degree. Now reading again and looking through the archives especially theoryman's RE: Clearing away the debris, am I getting there? post I am slowly becoming aware of the full implications of this rule.
Motive - Corrective
53535 - 535
and that's it.

No triangles,flats etc but in their place a rather elegant wave counting procedure. I like the feel of this it seems to address every awkward aspect of the normal theory.

But if I'm going to go with this I want to do it properly and not half cocked between the 2 methods. This brings me to the cardinal rule namely the 4th wave cannot penetrate the price range of wave 1. I never could fully understand that one, It's easy to understand how the wave correction cannot exceed the wave its correcting but that gives wave 2 < wave 1, and wave 4 < wave 3. So my stop should now go the the bottom of wave 3 instead of the extreme of wave 1.

The BOTTOM LINE is if I am going to get the most out of this system then I should REPLACE that 4th wave rule with this one and learn the wave counting method.

Does this all make sense or am I drifting off track?

Many Thanks
Peternz

USD/JPY in 5th wave from 2007 high

Sun, 05 Sep 2010 00:29:12 -0500

Finding this rule is proving to be awsome timing for me as I have just found my trading style which is elliott wave price structure also using fib and the rsi for divergence, this gives me an opportunity to use it to count the waves.

But not only that the USD/JPY has been in a 5th wave decline since the high of 2007. It looks to me like it is currently in the latter stages of a wave 3 subwave as it approaches the 1995 low which is the previous wave 3 extreme (the wave 4 formed a showcase 12 year triangle). I would like to hear from anyone following this currency pair to share notes on counts ESPECIALLY as this wave unfolds into its 4th wave retrace rally.

Happy trading
peternz

hello to all...

Tue, 10 Aug 2010 17:39:00 -0500

I am a gentlemen from the Syracuse-area who is new ( although familiar ) to the forex market. With that said I consider myself the greenest person to wave and sentiment analysis. My interest peaked, when I read Mr. Hennessy's
book because i wondered about the exact ( not as detailed ) things he wrote in his book and wondered if such a system could be formulated for trading. I know I personally didn't have the time or credentials to pursue such a task and am glad to have found a forum where someone has committed themselves to such. From this point on I ask that someone please fortify my confidence within this group, and turn this inference of mine into a maxim.
Looking forward to it all...

Thank You in advance,

Hi All

Fri, 06 Aug 2010 13:12:44 -0500

This is a first for me. Never posted a thread before. I'm old school - (IM' ing).

Thanks Tom et al.......

Fri, 06 Aug 2010 12:22:44 -0500

THANKS for NEWR and all your inputs, charts, questions and answers.

Mrs T. / friends / ex-colleagues will testify that I am argumenatative by nature BUT I only do it when I rate the views of the people I am arguing with. So it follows that I must really rate Tom and his NEWR.

If I question your count it's because I would expect you to do the same to me if you thought it might be wrong.

It must be blatantly obvious to all who read my posts that I am a theoretician by training, just happens to be Theoretical Physics.

I come from a background where betting was considered a major part of everyday life - I went to my first greyhound race meeting before I was born.

Apart from one research project I was involved in, I can honestly say that NEWR is more tailor made to my way of thinking, than anything else I have ever come across.

Detailed study of data, apply the rules, assess the possibilities, form a view, calculate the risk, assess the reward and then trade or not.

Only just returned to trading and this happens today, almost as if it were scripted................

A bit scary if you are trained to be sceptical!

Never was a heretic but certainly proud to be a sceptic.

cheers theory

FTSE count rises from the ashes.

Thu, 05 Aug 2010 06:04:47 -0500

Got myself in a right muddle running dual market open and 24 hr counts.

A move during out of hours caused me to wrongly reassess my other count - it ended up being trashed by about 1 pt.

Now back to market open only.

On the iii UKXSP board I posted about it looked like the final 3rd of the b inside the RTB was in motion yesterday.

That is shown below in orange moving down from the horizontal orange line.

[attachment=213]

That had to be a "C" in its own right and that is shown in blue 123 etc.

The final move down in blue has to be a 5th, the C4 is shown at 5335.

That 5th also was a five on 1 min and its internal 4C was at 5322.

Max risk if count wrong is 5pts + spread, min reward if count is right is back up again - seemed excellent value for money IMO.

cheers theory

Effect of shares going ex-div on an Index

Thu, 05 Aug 2010 02:20:42 -0500

The FTSE recent High is 5414 and yesterday it reached 5407.

My problem is that the day before the 5407 was reached, the FTSE effectively dropped >10 when a set of big dividend payers all went ex -div at the same time.

So was yesterday's High 5407 or effectively 5417 i.e. a higher High than the 5414.

In terms of non-failure of a wave, it is vital to know which figure is likely to be more valid.

cheers theory

Blood Count

Mon, 02 Aug 2010 08:30:50 -0500

What I like about this forum is the absence of crackerbarrel wisdom. No “they” instead of “we”, no mental diarrhoea on communists in the White House, no conspiracy theories running amok. I don’t want to break with that tradition. I just want to share with you my thoughts on what is important and what isn’t, on the difference between a problem and a luxury problem.

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[attachment=204]
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Worried about getting a count wrong? Paralyzed by the fear of losing a little colored paper? Come down to earth.

And yes, I rather buy my neighbor health insurance and leave my door open at night than spend the money on a gun and an electric fence and on an army of judges and jailers. I can calculate. Yes, I can.

What is "social mood"?

Sat, 24 Jul 2010 12:41:50 -0500

High levels = low risk aversion. A typical trader's day should look like this: Enter a ridiculously risky trade right at the opening bell, or even better, before the bell. As the hours go by, you feel more and more uncomfortable. Then, around eleven, you regain confidence. You decide, it's a waste of time to watch those boring candlesticks like all the other morons do. You go to some forum to see, if you can find someone to belittle. Hopefully, a few women will read it and admire your superior intellect. Dream on.
You go to lunch, it becomes clearer and clearer to you, that you probably made a mistake in the morning. You don't want to know, how big the mistake was. You take a nap.

An hour before the closing bell, you return to your computer. Your position is deep in the red. Time to double it.

Dax - Update

Sat, 24 Jul 2010 03:50:44 -0500

Here are my latest thoughts on the Dax. Caveat - Spread betting provider's data - however the Dax made a new high on 21st June, which means the flash crash was just a flash in the pan for it. I also have trouble counting 5 waves up from the flash crash low to the high so it looks more like a 'b' wave top to me. I can't remember when the next major Bradley turn date is though 9th August rings a bell and I would not be amazed if we put in a final high proximate to that date what with the European bank stress test results pointing to no stress at all.

Hi Tom, just 2 questions

Tue, 20 Jul 2010 12:32:34 -0500

Hi Tom

Question 1

When you make mention of no failed fifths, do you mean no failed fifths with regard to the extreme of 3 or the low of the RTB that has passed the extreme of 3. Below Ive posted a chart which I hope describes what I have said here a little better. I guess what Im trying to ask is, can the RTB be the low of the wave.

[attachment=187]

And then question 2.

Your rule states that in every c wave and every 5th wave there will be a 4th wave with a B wave that sets new price territory. The only way I can visualize this B wave you are mentioning is by the drawing below. Is it that black B in the 4th wave that you are talking about ??? I sure hope so or its back to the drawing board for me

[attachment=188]

Is it EVERY 5th and C that has an RTB?

Tue, 20 Jul 2010 04:56:47 -0500

I have always thought that a group of believers should have a sceptic amongst them - to ask the sort of questions that must be asked in order to keep things in perspective.

Tom found that every 5th and C that he studied contained an RTB.

Hopefully everyone realises that does not guarantee that the next one will.

I am in the process of collecting "fast final 5ths". These are subwaves at some degree that lead to a Pivot BUT they have something else in common.

Even on 1 min they do not contain checkable detail, they contain no retraces, they are consecutive unidirectional moves to the Pivot; indicated by solid candles with no head/tail, sometimes with gaps.

The next stage is to go down to 10 tick, 5 tick, 2 tick and then just 1 tick if needs be, to get inside them.

I thought I'd found the perfect uncheckable 5th the other day BUT at the 2 & 1 tick level there was enough detail to count it as a simple five but IMHO there was no room to fit in the retrending 4th.

If I ever find the perfect one, I'll post it - it might be on a chart for Yak Milk but I'll still post it.

I am not questioning the idea that a 4C being seen is sometimes enough.

I am proposing it should be possible for the whole of a final 5th to be completely uncheckable. Hence the claim that EVERY final 5th at every degree contains an RTB is a step too far. It might well be in 99.999% of all cases examined so far but not every one.

There are far more of these "fast final 5ths" than I ever previously imagined. For some reason I had pictured the 5th of the 5th of the 5th..... fading away as the move ground to a halt. There have been a number recently where the chart shot up, hit a brick wall at speed and bounced back.

cheers theory

historical charts

Thu, 15 Jul 2010 18:04:48 -0500

There are tons of historical charts on chartsrus. Amazing.

OPTION A B OR SEE

Thu, 15 Jul 2010 09:42:16 -0500

Hi
First of all I would just like to say what a fantastic discovery Tom, I mean really. You should give yourself more credit because Elliott did have the opportunity and the means to see this on a larger scale but he didnt, so my utmost respect to you. Secondly I hate you man because this discovery of yours has driven me quite insane counting it on minute charts LOL. Anyway I seem to be a little stuck here with something and hope you dont mind if I post some of my insanity on your forum here so that perhaps the picture could be made a little clearer for me at least.

CLF (Cliffs natural resources) Weekly timeframe

Option A 1 2 3 4 5 A B C and that completed cycle should be 1 2 on a larger timeframe and we into the beggining of a third wave, how nice would that be???

Option B 1 2 then on a smaller scale 1234 and 5 which has not completed yet would make up a completed larger scale 3. Dont really know what to feel about that scenario.

Option C 1 2 3 A RTB C4 which would mean there is a fifth wave to still come which is good in one sence but in another it means that move to the upside is a large scale C since the RTB will only appear in 5th or C waves. Which means the October 2008 move to the downside was 1 and the end of this C is going to be 2 and then....... well I would really like other opinions with regards to this. Looking forward to hearing from you guys. Attatched the charts on this post I hope they come out ok.
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Thank you for the e-book :-)

Sat, 10 Jul 2010 12:17:03 -0500

Good day friends!
I enjoyed the e-book after having recently studied Prechter's Elliot Wave Principle, and the first half of Neely's Mastering Elliot Wave. My focus has been supply/demand (price based) trading and I am really enjoying the discovery of the Wave Principle. Most recently I have been trying to find 1st waves and a pull back for higher probability opportunties. The way I understand NWR is that in every 5th and C wave, the "b" wave (RTB) in the next lower degree will set new trend price territory. When I read the e-book and postings at the forum, I am still confused about which degrees are being refered to after the higher degree "5th and C wave", as well as how to recognize the RTB 4th.
Have you ever done a short video on how to navigate through the NWR analysis. If you have one, I am very interested and grateful. Anyway, I will keep on truckin' with my studies and thank you again. Brian.

Current new EW counts

Thu, 08 Jul 2010 16:57:08 -0500

I like this forum to get some answers, but being new to this type of method, does anybody post their current counts for the spx. If it could be posted once or twice a week, I think it would be very helpful to the opnes learning the new method. Thanks in advance..G-

EWP and NEWR rules

Thu, 01 Jul 2010 13:50:24 -0500

Hello all,

To try to get my mind wrapped around EWP and NEWR rules, I’ve written what I think is the essence of EWP and the NEWR combined. I’d appreciate feedback and suggestions; particularly if a Rule is missing or incorrect.

Thanks,

Perry
***
Rather than post a revised version of this message, I’ll make edits to this one based on the feedback I’ve received. I welcome more feedback. Thanks, Perry
Edited 7-4-10
***

Elliott Wave Principal:

Stock market prices flow and ebb as a result of crowd behavior. That results in waves of price movement which advance and retreat. EWP calls the advances Impulse (or motive) waves and the retreats Corrective waves.

The waves are Fractal in nature, meaning each wave is made up of sub-waves which are similar in form. The Impulsive waves have 5 sub-waves. The Corrective waves have 3 sub-waves.

Again, each Impulse wave consists of 5 sub-waves which by convention are numbered: 1 impulsive, 2 corrective, 3 impulsive, 4 corrective, 5 impulsive. This is sometimes called a 1-2-3-4-5 wave pattern.
Or, because each of these sub-waves further divides into smaller sub-waves a 5-3-5-3-5.

Each Corrective wave consists of 3 sub-waves which by convention are lettered: A impulsive, B corrective, C impulsive. This is sometimes called an A-B-C wave. Or, because each of these sub-waves further divides into smaller sub-waves a 5-3-5.

Labels are placed at the end of each wave’s move.

[attachment=159]

Impulsive waves can take prices either up or down. Thus 1, 3, 5, A, and C are all impulsive waves.

While all waves follow the same pattern they can and do vary in amplitude (size) and time.

The wave pattern consisting of the 5 waves up followed by the 3 waves down is referred to as a cycle of 8 waves.

The cycles of similar magnitude are called degrees. In the image above the waves labeled [1] and [2] are of one degree. Which sub-divides into the waves labeled 1-2-3-4-5-A-B-C of the next lower degree.
***

Wave Rules:

These rules apply to waves which make up the 1-2-3-4-5-A-B-C pattern (one cycle) of one degree.

Wave 2 will not retrace more than 100% of wave 1.

Wave 3 always travels beyond the end of wave 1.

The price move (percentage) of wave 3 is never the shortest.

Wave C will not retrace more than 100% of wave 1.

In Every 5th Wave and in Every C Wave, the 4th Wave of the next lower degree WILL have a B Wave which will set New Trend Price Territory. This B wave is referred to as a “Retrending B” or more simply an “RTB” Wave.

There is no requirement for the end of an RTB 4th wave to retrace into the 3rd wave.

There is no limitation on the c wave of the RTB 4th other than it cannot move lower than the start of wave 1. It can go higher than 3 or lower than 3 and can enter wave 1's price territory.

To clarify both situations ( RTB 4ths in 5 and C ) OR ( non-RTB 4ths ) :

RTB 4th:
There is no restriction upon the movement of a 4th wave's trend (beyond 3rd) OR counter-trend travel or termination except that the termination of course may not exceed the start of wave 1. Also the RTB 4th wave's b wave of lower degree MUST exceed trend travel of wave 3.

Non-RTB 4th:
The 4th wave in all non-RTB waves must terminate less than the trend progression of the 3rd wave and not exceed the start of wave 1. It may have NO trend travel beyond that of wave 3.

The 5th wave must continue through to at least match the furthest price of the B of an RTB 4th of a 5 or C, or the furthest price of 3 in a non-RTB wave.

Within any specific wave no price within the wave may be beyond the end point of the wave, or before the start. For example, if wave 1 is part of an up trend, then no price within wave 1 can go higher than the ending price, or lower than the start of the wave. This does not apply to RTB 4th waves.

Hello!!

Mon, 28 Jun 2010 23:19:58 -0500

Hey guys n gals,
Im brand new here and was wondering if anyone can show me exactly HOW to count waves? There is a lot of crap on other forums and I figure this may be the best place to go. I have been interested in elliot waves and fibonacci, but could never get my head around it. Any help would be great! Thanks so much!

Respect,
Diesel