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It was only the RTB........
06-26-2011, 04:08 AM
Post: #1
It was only the RTB........
Hi,
Looks like we have all gone our own way and stopped posting our counts. For me the reason is just the same as last time, two few people putting their head above the parapet and too many looking without comment.

I have a tendency to miscount and call what is the end of the RTB, as the end of the final 5th - most ften happens when the RTB is spikey and the counter trend moves are difficult to analyse.

So I think I've found the pivot and am trading the 1st of the next move in the opposite direction.

Instead of relaxing and mentally switching off, I now watch this move very carefully.

What don't I want to see? Anything that tells me that THIS is the C4 and the final 5th isn't over.

A five which then gets retrended, must be A and then part of RTB, so must be in a 5th or C.

IF this happens early enough in the move, the probability that it is the C4, can be very high indeed. C4s can be ridden profitably but you know what must come next.....

cheers theory
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06-26-2011, 12:26 PM
Post: #2
RE: It was only the RTB........
(06-26-2011 04:08 AM)theoryman Wrote:  Hi,
Looks like we have all gone our own way and stopped posting our counts. For me the reason is just the same as last time, two few people putting their head above the parapet and too many looking without comment.

I have a tendency to miscount and call what is the end of the RTB, as the end of the final 5th - most ften happens when the RTB is spikey and the counter trend moves are difficult to analyse.

So I think I've found the pivot and am trading the 1st of the next move in the opposite direction.

Instead of relaxing and mentally switching off, I now watch this move very carefully.

What don't I want to see? Anything that tells me that THIS is the C4 and the final 5th isn't over.

A five which then gets retrended, must be A and then part of RTB, so must be in a 5th or C.

IF this happens early enough in the move, the probability that it is the C4, can be very high indeed. C4s can be ridden profitably but you know what must come next.....

cheers theory

Hi TM,

Don't be discouraged by those who only lurk.

You see my avatar. You may know that I loved your military reference to "the parapet".

Just be proud to be one of the ones willing to be in the vanguard.

Definition of VANGUARD
1 : the troops moving at the head of an army

2 : the forefront of an action or movement

-----------------------------

Also do not lose heart at the counting...

Your experience is very similar to my own. I must really work at avoiding being early.

Hope this at least helps relieve any tension.

------------------------------

So are you on S&P still or just Forex? That Eur/Gbp has been
interersting to say the least. I placed an order short when at .8967
but it was a mistake since I clicked Eur/Jpy at the time. Dodgy

That's how being too busy will do ya.

Then I recently opened a short when at .8837 and expect it to go to
below .8610 but even when I opened the trade I made mention in
the chat at Supertradersclub that I expected .8850 but entered in
case it didn't hit.

The reason?

Early tendency?... Thinking I was a tad early l went anyway. Is this
actually a fear of being LATE working its way through my psyche?

Maybe. It went to almost .8852 AFTER I entered.

In an aggressive trade using Supertradesystem it triggered short
at .8915 and that was far easier and less stressful and less work
which is why I prefer it. I had opened the Eur/Gbp count thread
and trade suggestion of a long term Long that came in a place
where STAR suggested no long term short and continue long so I
am doing both methods in this pair for the time being.

Point of that is that only 22 pips separated the two and EW is not
even used. In about 2 minutes you have your analysis and if that
gets triggered away you go.

Though I take on lots of projects I am lazy and so I easily identified
my own shortcuts in counting and this in part led to the part of the
theory as to how nobody had pointed out the NEWR.

Is being early any kind of laziness? I don't think that fits in any way.
I can only chime in and say I can identify with your experience on
that issue.

There is indeed more than one way to skin a cat as the saying goes.

So tonight I think EG gaps up but even if not it trades to no more
than .8927 and trades down from there. We'll see.

Remember though that nothing in life worth anything is EVER easy.
Having the correct rules by which the waves function does not mean
that counting them is easy either. It is easier to be ignorant at times
and hence the reference to bliss. Not a comfortable place for me
though so I am forced to apply my craft.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR VIEWS, TM!

Smile

TS Hennessy
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06-27-2011, 11:41 AM
Post: #3
RE: It was only the RTB........
(06-26-2011 12:26 PM)TS Hennessy Wrote:  
(06-26-2011 04:08 AM)theoryman Wrote:  Hi,
Looks like we have all gone our own way and stopped posting our counts. For me the reason is just the same as last time, two few people putting their head above the parapet and too many looking without comment.

I have a tendency to miscount and call what is the end of the RTB, as the end of the final 5th - most ften happens when the RTB is spikey and the counter trend moves are difficult to analyse.

So I think I've found the pivot and am trading the 1st of the next move in the opposite direction.

Instead of relaxing and mentally switching off, I now watch this move very carefully.

What don't I want to see? Anything that tells me that THIS is the C4 and the final 5th isn't over.

A five which then gets retrended, must be A and then part of RTB, so must be in a 5th or C.

IF this happens early enough in the move, the probability that it is the C4, can be very high indeed. C4s can be ridden profitably but you know what must come next.....

cheers theory

Hi TM,

Don't be discouraged by those who only lurk.

You see my avatar. You may know that I loved your military reference to "the parapet".

Just be proud to be one of the ones willing to be in the vanguard.

Definition of VANGUARD
1 : the troops moving at the head of an army

2 : the forefront of an action or movement

-----------------------------

Also do not lose heart at the counting...

Your experience is very similar to my own. I must really work at avoiding being early.

Hope this at least helps relieve any tension.

------------------------------

So are you on S&P still or just Forex? That Eur/Gbp has been
interersting to say the least. I placed an order short when at .8967
but it was a mistake since I clicked Eur/Jpy at the time. Dodgy

That's how being too busy will do ya.

Then I recently opened a short when at .8837 and expect it to go to
below .8610 but even when I opened the trade I made mention in
the chat at Supertradersclub that I expected .8850 but entered in
case it didn't hit.

The reason?

Early tendency?... Thinking I was a tad early l went anyway. Is this
actually a fear of being LATE working its way through my psyche?

Maybe. It went to almost .8852 AFTER I entered.

In an aggressive trade using Supertradesystem it triggered short
at .8915 and that was far easier and less stressful and less work
which is why I prefer it. I had opened the Eur/Gbp count thread
and trade suggestion of a long term Long that came in a place
where STAR suggested no long term short and continue long so I
am doing both methods in this pair for the time being.

Point of that is that only 22 pips separated the two and EW is not
even used. In about 2 minutes you have your analysis and if that
gets triggered away you go.

Though I take on lots of projects I am lazy and so I easily identified
my own shortcuts in counting and this in part led to the part of the
theory as to how nobody had pointed out the NEWR.

Is being early any kind of laziness? I don't think that fits in any way.
I can only chime in and say I can identify with your experience on
that issue.

There is indeed more than one way to skin a cat as the saying goes.

So tonight I think EG gaps up but even if not it trades to no more
than .8927 and trades down from there. We'll see.

Remember though that nothing in life worth anything is EVER easy.
Having the correct rules by which the waves function does not mean
that counting them is easy either. It is easier to be ignorant at times
and hence the reference to bliss. Not a comfortable place for me
though so I am forced to apply my craft.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR VIEWS, TM!

Smile

Hi Tom,

I put a lot of emphasis into the counter trend moves - always on the look out for a 1 2 3 A B C4 5 or 1 2 3 A RTB C4 5.

The problem comes when the trend is so fast moving that the retraces are nigh on impossible to count.

I have got much better a handling those fast finishing 5ths that were really getting to me at the start. I didn't realise how many there were until I started using NEWR. Basically I look for weak cases for possible C4s inside them, wait for the bounce to take as many of those levels out as possible and then wait again for a close approach to where the possible 5th finished.

I still seem to get too tight when the trade rapidly goes my way. My last S&P Short and a Brent Short were prime examples. In both cases I got totally lost in the real time count, hardly a counter trend move in sight. No time to analyse, protect profit becomes prime driving force, stopped out, then it kicks off again.

EURGBP has been very good to me. Almost got 300 ticks from one Long, messed up the exit and missed out on the ending spike. Took a break and then only took two attemps to catch the next pivot at the end of the move down that followed. Then found the end of the C of the 2nd, only took two goes, and added. Then almost immediately found another internal C that acted as a solid support, added again, survived two attacks....

Closed the vast majority out at 8922, looked like a C4, then higher for the 5th, drop through 8922, so I exited. Pity I didn't join you in Shorting, it was the same drop then retrace that you probably picked up.

Now taking a break from trading, enjoying some decent weather here for once but keeping an eye on Brent - looks ripe for a turn but I'll need a bounce and retrace.

cheers theory
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06-28-2011, 06:58 AM
Post: #4
RE: It was only the RTB........
Heh heh, I see I had been a tad early on Eur/Gbp and went short
once again at .8960 (it was only the RTB).

Smile

TS Hennessy
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