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Long Term Carry Trade
07-03-2012, 09:39 AM
Post: #101
RE: Long Term Carry Trade
Enjoy your week TM. 3kings, thank you for airing your tension - It's
better than a news article headliner! The pent up energy is palpable.

I am not lost but I did slip a gear a couple times here. I have avoided
smashing on the crossbar though. Wink

I must confess that I forced my view against what I saw, second
guessing myself. The high of .80289 at about 3am EDT on 6/28 I
was counting as the end of a 3 but the A that must follow went so
deep so early that I thought I must be mistaken and that caused me
to label that A as a 4.

The evidence now shows this was an A and the move from .79855 on
6/28 up to .80935 on 6/29 was the 1, 2 and 3 of the A of 1
lesser degree of an RTB on the same degree.

Awaiting the bullish 5 of A of RTB. It may not truncate so it must
exceed the .80935 high.

Smile

TS Hennessy
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07-03-2012, 11:13 PM
Post: #102
RE: Long Term Carry Trade
Thank you Tom!

3kings


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07-11-2012, 01:52 PM
Post: #103
RE: Long Term Carry Trade
Please review my count for eur/gbp and comment. Note that I am relatively new in New Rule for EW. Thanks.
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07-11-2012, 02:05 PM
Post: #104
RE: Long Term Carry Trade
See attached chart.    
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07-11-2012, 08:46 PM
Post: #105
RE: Long Term Carry Trade
Hope you're crossbar was padded Tom. Wink

I see exactly what the trouble here is. We obviously had a finish in that gap open high in early June but we can't see it. The real kick in the pants comes because if we don't see that then we are looking for a C4 to be there and as it keeps going it counts the same - until it can't.

Sashok I do not know about that count. The .b wave (your .a to .b wave) cannot go higher than the start of the wave (.a).

3kings


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07-11-2012, 09:30 PM
Post: #106
RE: Long Term Carry Trade
(07-11-2012 08:46 PM)3kings Wrote:  Sashok I do not know about that count. The .b wave (your .a to .b wave) cannot go higher than the start of the wave (.a).

3kings

3kings,
Thanks for comment. Can you clarify your comment. .b wave is RTB and must go below wave iii, which is the start of wave .a.
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07-12-2012, 02:16 AM
Post: #107
RE: Long Term Carry Trade
(07-11-2012 08:46 PM)3kings Wrote:  Hope you're crossbar was padded Tom. Wink

I see exactly what the trouble here is. We obviously had a finish in that gap open high in early June but we can't see it. The real kick in the pants comes because if we don't see that then we are looking for a C4 to be there and as it keeps going it counts the same - until it can't.

Sashok I do not know about that count. The .b wave (your .a to .b wave) cannot go higher than the start of the wave (.a).

3kings

Hi, prime example of the problems we have met before. Hidden history (in the gap) leads to a "now count" which might or not conflict with the bigger picture.

Not only will we have the problem you have outlined ( only solution is to wait and wait and wait; until the risk, reward, probability of success trio stack up) [You never know there might be hidden evidence at the end of the seemingly unstoppable drop that ........ Rolleyes]

There is also the problem of confirmation bias, so that once having not seen what must be there in order to complete the move up, our brains are more likely to misinterpret data in the move down, in order to make it fit what we need/want to see.

Probably worth repeating the areas that cause me problems:

Gaps (how do you count something that has no data in it?)

Rapid moves (how do you count when the shifts are all one way, or any countershifts are tiny?)

Slow grinding trends without any sharp internal definition.....

cheers theory
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07-12-2012, 02:24 AM
Post: #108
RE: Long Term Carry Trade
(07-11-2012 09:30 PM)Sashok Wrote:  
(07-11-2012 08:46 PM)3kings Wrote:  Sashok I do not know about that count. The .b wave (your .a to .b wave) cannot go higher than the start of the wave (.a).

3kings

3kings,
Thanks for comment. Can you clarify your comment. .b wave is RTB and must go below wave iii, which is the start of wave .a.

Hi, I think he means ..... cannot go higher than the end of the wave(.a)

You are correct in thinking that a valid retrending .b must go below the end of the iii BUT the .b must do that without any part of it going back beyond its own starting level (which is the end of the .a)

Hope I'm correct and it makes sense.

cheers theory
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07-12-2012, 09:02 AM
Post: #109
RE: Long Term Carry Trade
Hi, I think he means ..... cannot go higher than the end of the wave(.a)

You are correct in thinking that a valid retrending .b must go below the end of the iii BUT the .b must do that without any part of it going back beyond its own starting level (which is the end of the .a)

Hope I'm correct and it makes sense.

cheers theory
[/quote]

Thanks, Theoryman. Can anybody present their count version.
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01-30-2013, 10:21 PM
Post: #110
RE: Long Term Carry Trade
Make some change on EUR/GBP gents & ladies. Looks like a nice Short from here to below .7756 over the next few weeks which is over 800 pips. Now .8588


Smile

TS Hennessy
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