Post Reply 
Thread Rating:
  • 0 Votes - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
A "perfect count" and then wham.....
01-01-2011, 07:44 AM (This post was last modified: 01-01-2011 07:46 AM by theoryman.)
Post: #1
A "perfect count" and then wham.....
I make no apologies for this being a theoretical scenario, it's how I think and it's how I started off the creative process and ended up with a way of thinking that suits me personally.

Please don't read it as a specific attack on NEWR, it's not. It's more about repeated past patterns never being able to cope with some things in the future.

Suppose you think you have the perfect definitive count, every part of every wave behaves as expected, you are "in the zone".

The RTB is in place, the next move is a beautiful big C of 4, with a fantastic ending sequence of 5ths of 5ths of 5ths.....

The internal pivot is confirmed and it starts to move back towards the RTB level, which it must at least reach.

Then there is an event which is totally unexpected - the effect of which is to drive the market, into a large rapid move, in the OPPOSITE direction to that required by the definitive count; and it is blown out of the water in the blink of an eye.

After the event you look back at the "perfect count" and realise that was an alternative. It only required a very small subsection to be a completed subwave, a slight reinterpretaion of another bit; and lo and behold the RTB was in fact the completed 5th, the Pivot was in and you have a new "perfect count".

IF that is possible in this case, then it's possible in every case, even if there is no major event. If you truly believe in something then it is all too simple to force information to fit what is needed - i.e. you use it in a way that a neutral wouldn't do.

When you are "in the zone" you only think you have the "perfect" count, but I propose that with any system you must ALWAYS keep in mind the fact that there are alternatives.

I rate each section in terms of the probability of being one thing or another - starts with "Is it a three or a five?" and then goes deeper.

At the end, my BEST rating is seldom higher than 60%, so I am building in a 40% failure rate. If my best doesn't work out, I am not at all surprised and I suffer no mental pain or anguish.

I move on to the next one and check the probability & the reward:risk, if the maths stacks up I trade, if not I wait.

I really do think NEWR allows you to develop an edge, the next stage is learning how to use the outcome to trade succcessfully.

cheers theory
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 

Forum Jump: