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The return of the "missing" wave pattern....
12-01-2010, 03:41 PM
Post: #1
The return of the "missing" wave pattern....
Tom,
I am still having problems with my data sources and waves that end abruptly, even at the 1 tick level, without any possible evidence in the final 5th of the whatever it is, that there is a seven move pattern (123 A RTB C4 5).

I had one on the FTSE today that went 1,2,3 then an absolutely solid cracking five for the A, then a fast featureless retrend, then it reversed to go back above the start of the pattern.

I was trying to sneak up behind it to protect profit, and I had that move coming after an what I thought was an RTB.

My logic went as follows. It must be 5th or C because of the A and retrend, even without the rest of the pattern being visble. Given its location it couldn't be a 5th and in fact had to be a C of 4. So it's a safe place to shift up below and let the 5th carry on. Worked a treat!

Problem is of course, if the "solid five" was a three, it wasn't a C or 5th and the previous High couldn't have been an RTB.

Have you ever had to do anything similar or is it a total "No, no."?

When you were looking at vast numbers of these patterns, you must have come across many where the detail just wasn't there for one reason or another. Did you find that those tended to come at times of major reversals more often than not?

cheers theory
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12-01-2010, 04:39 PM
Post: #2
RE: The return of the "missing" wave pattern....
(12-01-2010 03:41 PM)theoryman Wrote:  Tom,
I am still having problems with my data sources and waves that end abruptly, even at the 1 tick level, without any possible evidence in the final 5th of the whatever it is, that there is a seven move pattern (123 A RTB C4 5).

I had one on the FTSE today that went 1,2,3 then an absolutely solid cracking five for the A, then a fast featureless retrend, then it reversed to go back above the start of the pattern.

I was trying to sneak up behind it to protect profit, and I had that move coming after an what I thought was an RTB.

My logic went as follows. It must be 5th or C because of the A and retrend, even without the rest of the pattern being visble. Given its location it couldn't be a 5th and in fact had to be a C of 4. So it's a safe place to shift up below and let the 5th carry on. Worked a treat!

Problem is of course, if the "solid five" was a three, it wasn't a C or 5th and the previous High couldn't have been an RTB.

Have you ever had to do anything similar or is it a total "No, no."?

When you were looking at vast numbers of these patterns, you must have come across many where the detail just wasn't there for one reason or another. Did you find that those tended to come at times of major reversals more often than not?

cheers theory

The infinite variability of fractals which can still follow rules makes that
kind of categorical statement difficult. Aren't all the problems at the
reversals? Wink

About what may explain missing data at the tick level, one theory is it
may be flaws in the systems that gather and aggregate and report.

The fact that the waves are self similar at all degrees tells us that if
there were irregularities in the rules we would see them at the larger
degrees as well. Since there isn't it follows that the counting or the
data would likely be the explanation.

A pic showing what you observed would be most helpful.

Something else to consider - when you watch the price line on the
current bar you are able to observe movement which does not print
except within the bar.

Then on tick you think all bases are covered but wouldn't real detail
of all individual trades at times make the line flat when multiple trades
at the same price are taken? It is actually NOT displaying all detail
because the volume is aggregated at the post time.

So tick as actually displayed inherently hides detail.

Smile

TS Hennessy
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12-01-2010, 05:17 PM
Post: #3
RE: The return of the "missing" wave pattern....
(12-01-2010 04:39 PM)TS Hennessy Wrote:  
(12-01-2010 03:41 PM)theoryman Wrote:  Tom,
I am still having problems with my data sources and waves that end abruptly, even at the 1 tick level, without any possible evidence in the final 5th of the whatever it is, that there is a seven move pattern (123 A RTB C4 5).

I had one on the FTSE today that went 1,2,3 then an absolutely solid cracking five for the A, then a fast featureless retrend, then it reversed to go back above the start of the pattern.

I was trying to sneak up behind it to protect profit, and I had that move coming after an what I thought was an RTB.

My logic went as follows. It must be 5th or C because of the A and retrend, even without the rest of the pattern being visble. Given its location it couldn't be a 5th and in fact had to be a C of 4. So it's a safe place to shift up below and let the 5th carry on. Worked a treat!

Problem is of course, if the "solid five" was a three, it wasn't a C or 5th and the previous High couldn't have been an RTB.

Have you ever had to do anything similar or is it a total "No, no."?

When you were looking at vast numbers of these patterns, you must have come across many where the detail just wasn't there for one reason or another. Did you find that those tended to come at times of major reversals more often than not?

cheers theory

The infinite variability of fractals which can still follow rules makes that
kind of categorical statement difficult. Aren't all the problems at the
reversals? Wink

About what may explain missing data at the tick level, one theory is it
may be flaws in the systems that gather and aggregate and report.

The fact that the waves are self similar at all degrees tells us that if
there were irregularities in the rules we would see them at the larger
degrees as well. Since there isn't it follows that the counting or the
data would likely be the explanation.

A pic showing what you observed would be most helpful.

Something else to consider - when you watch the price line on the
current bar you are able to observe movement which does not print
except within the bar.

Then on tick you think all bases are covered but wouldn't real detail
of all individual trades at times make the line flat when multiple trades
at the same price are taken? It is actually NOT displaying all detail
because the volume is aggregated at the post time.

So tick as actually displayed inherently hides detail.

Smile

Thanks Tom,
It's all starting to fit into place and the extra bit helped clarify something that was bugging me.

I'd love to post a picture and will do so if I can tomorrow. We are experiencing weather unlike anything in my lifetime - about an inch of snow every hour, hour after hour after hour, and now the wind is getting up. My "broadband" internet connection is via landline (no fibre optic out here) and the bandwidth is down to very low levels throughout the village. I think I've saved the chart on the SB site but it kept timing out. If not I'll have another go tomorrow whilst the tick level data is still there - assuming we have electricity and a connection.

cheers theory
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12-02-2010, 03:18 AM
Post: #4
RE: The return of the "missing" wave pattern....
Tom,

Just managed to get access to where my annotated charts should be stored and there was nothing there. Not only yesterday's are missing, the ones going back several days aren't there either.

After a brief overnight respite it's snowing again very heavily.

The connectivity is very poor again and I can't do anything to get around the problem.

Apologies for raising an issue that I can't substantiate. I'll just have to wait for the next case, if there is one. Hope there is because otherwise I might becoming delusional, too much time spent working with tick level data has taken its toll.

cheers theory
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12-02-2010, 11:59 PM
Post: #5
RE: The return of the "missing" wave pattern....
(12-02-2010 03:18 AM)theoryman Wrote:  Tom,

Just managed to get access to where my annotated charts should be stored and there was nothing there. Not only yesterday's are missing, the ones going back several days aren't there either.

After a brief overnight respite it's snowing again very heavily.

The connectivity is very poor again and I can't do anything to get around the problem.

Apologies for raising an issue that I can't substantiate. I'll just have to wait for the next case, if there is one. Hope there is because otherwise I might becoming delusional, too much time spent working with tick level data has taken its toll.

cheers theory

That's no problem.

I meant any time you get something like it in the future.

Smile

TS Hennessy
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12-04-2010, 03:42 AM (This post was last modified: 12-04-2010 04:35 AM by theoryman.)
Post: #6
RE: The return of the "missing" wave pattern....
Tom,
Here's an example at the extreme level i.e. single tick.

For those of you used to working at the longer time frames, I think it is a technique that can be applied there as well.

(123, five, then retrend + ????) must be a C or 5th even though its own ending pattern is not checkable because of the ???? part.

The top chart shows the Price action ("signal +noise") in feint dotted. My software (first trial version) attempts to remove the "noise", showing the "signal" as the solid line.

The idea is simple and possibly confusing but reflects he way I think. The "noise" is removed when not needed; but looked at if it MIGHT help if it wasn't noise. Basically it's about the reward and risk attached to a decision, compared to the probability you've made the best use of all the info available.

That solid line is then copied in the lower chart at normal boldness and the ZigZag set on 0.1pt is superimposed in solid.

The time at the top of the chart is when it was saved GMT, it is a snapshot of what was happening at the GMT time shown on the 2nd Dec i.e. about an hour before the S&P closed.


   


Using the bottom chart to start with, there is a five down, three up and long one down. ["Noise removed"]

Swapping to the upper chart, the long one down contains a five. [That bit of "noise" was maybe "signal"]

So that's the 123 down and it's followed by a five up (my usual green line) which is followed by a retrending something, so that five up is the A before the RTB.

The 1218.9 is confirmed as the end of what "must" be a red C4 BUT only when the start of it is taken out ~ 1222. I can't read the detail after the A, so I can't use the taking out of the highest level of internal upward C4 as being an earlier sign. [Obvious AFTER the event that ~1220 was the key level but not in real time, it could quite easily have retrended again IMO.]

That level, 1218.9, did hold overnight and survived a very close encounter the next day but it held and then the Price moved up to make the new High.

I have used the technique 10 times in the last two days, usually at the 5 or 10 tick level. On 9 of those occasions it worked and what I thought was the next completed C4, acted as if it were one - doesn't mean it was one though.

The one I got wrong, on the FTSE, was the possible mistake I highlighted in my original post. The "five up" was a three, so it wasn't an A, it was a 4th in a simple 5-3-5-3-5 pattern.

cheers theory
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