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RE: Latest S & P 500 Count - Perry - 12-29-2011 02:05 PM

Here is what the count looks like to me. I feel like I’ve got a lot to learn, so I’m not very confident in it. I welcome comments or feedback.

Sorry about the Elwave degree symbols: 11 is Mil, 12 sub-mil, etc.

Perry

[attachment=798]
[attachment=799]


RE: Latest S & P 500 Count - theoryman - 12-29-2011 04:00 PM

(12-29-2011 02:05 PM)Perry Wrote:  Here is what the count looks like to me. I feel like I’ve got a lot to learn, so I’m not very confident in it. I welcome comments or feedback.

Sorry about the Elwave degree symbols: 11 is Mil, 12 sub-mil, etc.

Perry





Hi, that's what I have as my alternative. Basically your final c4 is what I have as the 1st in what I want to happen, will be very happy to be proved correct but won't be surprised if it doesn't happen.

So far I have survived, added twice, locked in profit and sat the rest above that last High.


4ths are designed to confuse and spikey c of 4s look so motive until......

My count goes A B instead of red I II ( on the 28th!) so I then have a long (size and time) C with that big drop being a nine, contains five Lows, for its own C4 and then into a finished 5th. (This is a 2nd, so to me it is always an A B C. Just cannot get my head around a or .a or .......)

I thought the odds on offer compared to the probability were too good to miss. At one stage the odds in running halved from when I took the bet.

When I first started gambling on the dogs and horses, there was no such thing as betting in running. Even if the final result of this bet is wrong, I have still made money because it went so far my way before it went belly-up.

Cheers theory


RE: Latest S & P 500 Count - Perry - 12-30-2011 01:36 PM

Hi Theory,

Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I did a chart based on your count…it does count well that way. At my level of skill/knowledge, I could not see one count as particularly better than the other.

Thanks,
Perry


RE: Latest S & P 500 Count - theoryman - 01-03-2012 02:32 PM

Perry,
Your count might not be correct but mine certainly wasn't.
There are IMO three occasions when you should use Guaranteed Stop Losses and Weekends/extended Holiday breaks is one of them - phew!

Here in the UK at 11:00 GMT/Zulu I had 1284 available but I didn't quite catch it.

Still managed to get another Short in that offered 15-1 that 1074 will go before 1295.

I now have around 75% of the original running for free based on 1286 holding.

Given that Tom is certain that the A is over (Does this include a Black Swan event?) and I was 60% certain, rising to 70% when you provided a count, independent to mine; I'll gladly settle for that.

If this position fails then I'll reload either on a pure Reward:Risk valuation or preferably one based on some more recent evidence that this rise is possibly going to end.

cheers theory


RE: Latest S & P 500 Count - TS Hennessy - 01-03-2012 06:34 PM

(01-03-2012 02:32 PM)theoryman Wrote:  Given that Tom is certain that the A is over (Does this include a Black Swan event?) and I was 60% certain, rising to 70% when you provided a count, independent to mine; I'll gladly settle for that.

TM, in EW there are only right and wrong counts, correct or incorrect
assessments of degrees of scale, but absolutely NO Black Swan events.

The waves may move into a new speed but if contracting into an area
without room, i.e. by rules they can only break significantly in one
direction (and this assumes the count is correct of course), then no
event will cause them to do otherwise.

There are many events which have been expected to produce
significant moves in one direction which turned out to be the opposite
direction once the "event" took place.

I did expect there to be a new high this week (+1270), setting up
what may prove to be the shorting opportunity of the year (at least).
Decade potential is certainly there depending on the downward
sentiment after the RTB (shallow stroke on that following C4?).

Sentiment must already be in play to create what the charts will do at
least for formation and, of course by implication, the travel/speed.

Remember that since markets are fractal they must use speed
changes in order to make similar parts in variable sizes or the fractal
characteristic would not hold up.

Additional implications for less than very long term traders as we
enter the Minor (B) is that of a channel trading strategy. This can of
course get started in here and then later uses (A) as a brick wall in
shorting at the terminal of either (ii) or (iv) of (a) to add or enter new
positions once the downward pressure begins to breathe relief breaths.

Happy New Year all!

Smile


RE: Latest S & P 500 Count - Perry - 01-03-2012 07:30 PM

Tom, thanks for sharing your thoughts.

Well, here is how the count looks to me, although I don’t have a lot of confidence in it. I wonder what’s hidden in the opening this morning? I welcome suggestions or comments.

Sorry about the Elwave degree symbols: 11 is Mil, 12 sub-mil, etc.

Perry

[attachment=800]


RE: Latest S & P 500 Count - finster869 - 01-03-2012 07:31 PM

Tom- Does this continue to accurately reflect where you believe we are: "Well my view is that we have completed Minuette 1 and most of
Minuette 2 of Minute (a) of Minor (B) of Intermediate Circle iv of Primary Circle 5."


RE: Latest S & P 500 Count - finster869 - 01-03-2012 07:34 PM

(01-03-2012 07:30 PM)Perry Wrote:  Tom, thanks for sharing your thoughts.

Well, here is how the count looks to me, although I don’t have a lot of confidence in it. I wonder what’s hidden in the opening this morning? I welcome suggestions or comments.

Sorry about the Elwave degree symbols: 11 is Mil, 12 sub-mil, etc.

Perry

Perry from your b wave at the last low, I am wondering if your III is really the first wave of c/2, followed by, 2, then 3, a and then the 3 wave move to today's high being the b wave, with the c4 yet to come.


RE: Latest S & P 500 Count - TS Hennessy - 01-04-2012 11:23 PM

(01-03-2012 07:31 PM)finster869 Wrote:  Tom- Does this continue to accurately reflect where you believe we are: "Well my view is that we have completed Minuette 1 and most of
Minuette 2 of Minute (a) of Minor (B) of Intermediate Circle iv of Primary Circle 5."

Yes it does up until the high yesterday (1284.62).

I would not be able to tell if there was anything still
needed to be all done with the Minuette 2 since I was
not following ticks but I suspect that it is over.

The straight shot on Jan 3rd is a typical 5th blowoff
with little detail even on M1.

We should be in confirmation soon.

Smile


RE: Latest S & P 500 Count - Perry - 01-05-2012 07:19 PM

Hi finster,
Thanks for the suggestion. Below is a chart based on what I think you said. That certainly looks very possible. The Micro 3 is shorter than the 1, but if 5 stays short, that would fit in the rules. I think Tom’s comment suggests 1285 on 1/3 may have been the top.
Perry

[attachment=801]