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Pots of gold at the end of rainbows - Printable Version

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Pots of gold at the end of rainbows - Steely Dan - 01-28-2011 11:44 PM

Well this time the pivot is in!? Though I thought it was with the correction starting on 18th Jan. It was only the subsequent action which made me change my stance, indeed the market rallied off the 20th Jan low in a 3 wave form and turned lower briefly, but there was no follow through lower. This time I'll adopt a similar strategy of covering when I see an rtb-4 of the 5th sub-wave down.

Previous to new-r one of the things I would have looked at would be the size of correction relative to previous corrections - interestingly enough they are currently almost exactly the same, so there would be no confirmation yet that this correction is a greater degree than the last.

Before I ramble on let's get to the point. I had counted a top on 18th Jan, and only subsequently did I have to revise the count. Now I have the same situation - before I revisit the long term count I must hold my hands up and say I don't have high confidence in the degree of pivot counted. This may seem a minor quibble, after all I'm now able to make money on the S&P whilst asleep where previously it was difficult to do so while awake (my wife is also grateful of this fact), however when I first read the NewR document it was the tracking down of the major pivot which I perceived was it's raison-d'etre, instead it has turned out personally to be a trend following tool giving great rewards for limited risk.

My question is this: Am I merely going through the growing pains of learning how to count properly and only by doing so will I be more sure of the degree of pivot, or is this just the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow and if so should I just be happy to travel profitably?


RE: Pots of gold at the end of rainbows - finster869 - 01-29-2011 06:29 AM

The name of the game is to profit. With time I am sure your counting will get better and better, but does it really matter? Like you just pointed out to me in the other thread, we should trade this the same if it is 4c down of an uncompleted 4c up and takes to 1171, or if it is the is finally the big 5th wave down to below 666 that we have been waiting for. What we have done is found a way to make the trend our friend!! Granted, in long one way markets it is easier, but I havE faith that Tom's discovery with your trading method of using the 4c as a brick wall will work in choppy markets as well.


RE: Pots of gold at the end of rainbows - TS Hennessy - 01-29-2011 02:36 PM

(01-28-2011 11:44 PM)Steely Dan Wrote:  Well this time the pivot is in!? Though I thought it was with the correction starting on 18th Jan. It was only the subsequent action which made me change my stance, indeed the market rallied off the 20th Jan low in a 3 wave form and turned lower briefly, but there was no follow through lower. This time I'll adopt a similar strategy of covering when I see an rtb-4 of the 5th sub-wave down.

Previous to new-r one of the things I would have looked at would be the size of correction relative to previous corrections - interestingly enough they are currently almost exactly the same, so there would be no confirmation yet that this correction is a greater degree than the last.

Before I ramble on let's get to the point. I had counted a top on 18th Jan, and only subsequently did I have to revise the count. Now I have the same situation - before I revisit the long term count I must hold my hands up and say I don't have high confidence in the degree of pivot counted. This may seem a minor quibble, after all I'm now able to make money on the S&P whilst asleep where previously it was difficult to do so while awake (my wife is also grateful of this fact), however when I first read the NewR document it was the tracking down of the major pivot which I perceived was it's raison-d'etre, instead it has turned out personally to be a trend following tool giving great rewards for limited risk.

My question is this: Am I merely going through the growing pains of learning how to count properly and only by doing so will I be more sure of the degree of pivot, or is this just the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow and if so should I just be happy to travel profitably?


It is definitely the former. Applying the degree ongoing is a scientific
method afterall, mistakes notwithstanding.

You will begin to see things like the speed changes inside nested
RTB 4ths which will help cut down mistakes.

(That is where the travel in price vs time is greater or disproportionate
to the other nested 4ths in the family and the entire subwave set
stretches the price territory quite a bit.)

That type of action makes it easy to see from this side of NEWR why
Elliott himself invented extensions to begin with.

I think the process of adapting to the NEWR ultimately brings one to
the simple application of process of elimination on EVERY subwave. Yes
we do this already in EW but near pivots you must count each subwave
with an eye for two distinct possibilities, RTB or STD.

The minutia of a speeding 5th wave spike with scant definition and
hidden data has been mentioned by Theoryman. But remembering that
this is a self similar fractal means the process never changes.

Therefore the size of the wave won't matter and the volatility won't
matter. The repetition will improve recognition.

And as you mention, it is a paid education. Smile

Just remember what the movie taught us...

It's in the SEARCH for the Holy Grail where all the COMEDY is.

[attachment=507]

So HAVE FUN!!

Smile


RE: Pots of gold at the end of rainbows - Perry - 01-30-2011 01:22 PM

Tom, thanks for sharing the comments. Every tidbit on wave tendencies and characteristics, helps make it easier to see the waves / count.

Perry