Long Term Carry Trade

[theoryman]

(05-26-2011 01:29 AM)theoryman Wrote:  

(05-25-2011 08:42 PM)TS Hennessy Wrote:  Looks like we are in the RTB of 4 of C of 4 to me.

Obviously I am already very happy with the trade whatever the count and I am keeping a watchful eye on it. If your count is correct, I want to maximise the take from me being wrong. However,......

cheers theory

Didn't need to keep an eye on it, it ran itself - higher High, higher Low, higher High......

Spotted the possible ending C4 looking pattern on 1 min, confirmed by looking on 5 tick - went neutral awaiting the next move up - profit maximised from being wrong

Thanks Tom, your post opened my eyes to the alternative - not wide enough though to make me reverse into a Short though.

cheers theory

[theoryman]

Back in Long using Double possible C4s on 5 tick because my nearest best one is too far away.

Move up to 8642 looks a good contender at some degree.

Two lower moves up to 8628 and 8626 offer some good features but not enough to meet my criteria as individuals.

Drop down to 8611 means 8642 is a long way off for my style.

Bounce back to 8634 moves through BOTH 8626 and 8628, so only one of them needs to be vaild for the 5th of something to be over.

Then it's a matter of waiting for close retrace to 8611, preferably with a > 61.8% retrace from 8634 - conditions met at 8619, so naked Long again.

Nice overnight move up after doing nothing BUT not looking good after it moved through 8680 and hit a double top. In particular I think there's an ending pattern in there, which is remakably similar to the yesterday's termination of the move up.

Now neutral and awaiting clarification. This time I'll hopefully jump on board any parabolic drop rather than just watching it Otherwise I'll wait for trend continuation signal

cheers theory

[theoryman]

Continuation signal came loud and clear - I used the NEWR "move down is over" version. This time there was no rapid drop, so the defensive mechanism was insurance that wasn't needed - had to be paid for though and IMO worth every penny/cent.

If Tom's A is the A, then I have the RTB over and we are now most likely in the C4 up - I can't see any sign that the 5th down is over but it is a non-zero possibility.

If Tom's A is in fact the C4, then I have the possibility that the 5th is over and the Pivot is in.

Hopefully the internal count for this move up will reveal what it is - yesterday's holiday in UK and USA doesn't help make matters any easier.

cheers theory

[TS Hennessy]

I don't see the 4th over yet myself.

1 more down to go yet imo ( need the 5th of C of a Non-RTB 4th of A of B )

This is the one we do not want to underestimate as it puts the whole price
action into the demilitarized zone (you know 4ths don't overlap 1's, remember? ).

Yeah, they really do.

[theoryman]

(05-31-2011 10:46 PM)TS Hennessy Wrote:  I don't see the 4th over yet myself.

1 more down to go yet imo ( need the 5th of C of a Non-RTB 4th of A of B )

This is the one we do not want to underestimate as it puts the whole price
action into the demilitarized zone (you know 4ths don't overlap 1's, remember? ).

Yeah, they really do.

Sent a NEWR chart to an EWT trading buddy and I had great pleasure, in putting on a great big red up arrow that was labelled; "C4 can go all the way back up to here!"

I have had another look at "your A / my possible C4" at the 5 min level and this time I got two other independent data suppliers. The key move on the original, that I thought was an early strong candidate for a five, isn't there as clearly, on the other two.

Given what then happened, I now strongly prefer your count; everything seems to fit better when looked at as a whole.

8845 is the line in the sand IMO, we are now over 8800 as I type. Not a bad return for probably being wrong on the bigger picture but I got the small one right and this C4 has taken care of the rest.

cheers theory

[Steely Dan]

8845 as I type with spreadbetter's data if we don't cross the threshold it has to be worth a couple of pips short.

[theoryman]

Unless I'm very much mistaken, the move through 8845 removes Tom's count and leaves mine as a possibility.

I expected it to either bounce back off 8845 or burst through it - has only crawled through.

I have what looks like a good quality C4 in 300+ candles from 8809 down to 8764.

I have shifted up above that level on a count for the subsequent 5th and am hiding with my"cover goes back on" just below 8819, which locks in ~200

cheers theory

[TS Hennessy]

No you are quite correct. My version is not possible.

There are only 3 others

1) 4th was done,
2) we are in the B of 4 and that whole picture so far was only the A and the scale of A is much larger than I would have thought, or
3) my whole big picture is completely off target.

Just a minor inconvenience right?

Now you know why I use a different system for most of my forex trading
which has only a few decades of data at best, yet is at the same scale
as the Major World Indices (not a good situation). In fact it was one of
those setups (yet incomplete - not ready for signal) on a huge scale
which tipped me off to this pair's likely direction early in 2011. But it is
definitely an interesting pattern and fun to count.

I think it is no secret how I feel about good data. In fact I send this pic
out when anyone gets involved with or inquires about my trading system.

   

That was at a key pivot of Eur/Gbp not very long ago where I noticed such
blatant discrepancies but the unique ability to identify the good and bad
has been there from nearly the beginning of system usage. I began to get
pics sent to me by others that had wild stuff on them which weren't on mine.

Most likely... this is a minor scale trick in the 4th wave version and so we
will watch this current form very carefully.

[TS Hennessy]

There is an example of the brick wall perhaps right now on Eur/Gbp.

If correct the high of .8964 this morning is up against the brick wall of .8975

My target is below .8610 as I see today's high as the C4 of C of
a non-RTB 4 of A of an RTB of a bullish 5th which began June 2010.

[TS Hennessy]

Once again I believe that the Eur/Gbp is just now beginning
its turn North. (i.e. in the last half hour or so after touching .8250)

My Big Picture is still that this is in an RTB. My view is that the a and
b of the RTB are now complete.

I target north of .9800 on the remaining c of the RTB from here.