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Steely Dan · 10-08-2010, 06:55 AM

Finster, I'm happy with a cable pivot of some degree. S&P and FTSE in the balance (maybe). Gold? Well short term I think we are in the final 4c before going parabolic. 1312 then 1296 would have to go to make me think otherwise.

P.S I'd love to hear what Tom has to offer on any market I'm getting swamped.

finster869 · 10-22-2010, 09:32 AM

Dan- Do you have gold as having topped yet, or do you think we are currently in a 4c down?

finster869 · (This post was last modified: 01-02-2011 10:03 AM by finster869.)

Here are my updated gold charts as of 12-31-10.

theoryman · 01-03-2011, 03:44 AM

(01-02-2011 10:02 AM)finster869 Wrote: Here are my updated gold charts as of 12-31-10.

finster,
Thanks for that.

I have another possible interpretation of the moves down:-

from 14th Oct (green five A, pink three abc of RTB and "4C" to make a 4C)

and the move down from 9th Nov as a green A (five non-overlapping subwaves, shown in grey.)

Your count for those moves is different, have you got a more detailed breakdown of how you counted them?

cheers theory

finster869 · (This post was last modified: 01-08-2011 10:34 AM by finster869.)

With gold dropping below my Red A at 1362, it looks to me like gold may have finally topped and ended red [iii] meaning a multi-month Blue A wave would be due, before resuming the uptrend with a retrending Blue B wave. Breach of the C4 at 1330 should confirm this. The chart currently looks to me as though 1430, which was incorrectly marked black iii, may have been the end of red [iii], with the red .A at 1362 being the first wave down, and the retrace to 1423 the 2nd wave.

Anybody agree/disagree?

theoryman · 01-09-2011, 06:14 AM

(01-03-2011 03:44 AM)theoryman Wrote:
(01-02-2011 10:02 AM)finster869 Wrote: Here are my updated gold charts as of 12-31-10.

finster,
Thanks for that.

I have another possible interpretation of the moves down:-

from 14th Oct (green five A, pink three abc of RTB and "4C" to make a 4C)

and the move down from 9th Nov as a green A (five non-overlapping subwaves, shown in grey.)

Your count for those moves is different, have you got a more detailed breakdown of how you counted them?

cheers theory

How about my black 4 was really a five and just the A of the 4?

Have been working with guy on reward:risk trades and he was 80% certain that Gold would make a higher High than 1432 when it was moving up through the 1410s.

So I asked him to swap viewpoints and agree that he was 20% certain it wouldn't.

His min target then became 1361. Given that view, going Short at 1422 was reward:risk 61:10, and at 1423 was 62:9 and at 1424 was 63:8.....

I have now found it useful to set up a simple spreadsheet where the exit and target are set, the entry is the variable and it calculates the reward:risk for all the entries. That way you can quickly see where the payoff starts to get viable in the context of your assessment.

cheers theory

finster869 · 01-09-2011, 07:04 AM

Unless I am misunderstanding you, I originally had your black 4 as Red .A on my chart. That count does not work, since the wave has now dropped below that level without making an new high over 1423.

theoryman · 01-09-2011, 11:50 AM

(01-09-2011 07:04 AM)finster869 Wrote: Unless I am misunderstanding you, I originally had your black 4 as Red .A on my chart. That count does not work, since the wave has now dropped below that level without making an new high over 1423.

I'm suggesting that 1432 was the black 3.

1361 should be the A of the 4 and not the completed 4 as I have it.
1424 was the B of the 4, since it failed to make a new High.
1354 was the possible end of the C of the 4, had to make a lower Low than 1361 but circa 1330 is the exit for the count.

I am not used to working on Daily charts and previously I have almost zero success trying to get a read on Gold, with systems that worked well on the FTSE. So since no-one else responded to your request for alternatives, I thought I put forward something hoping it might be of some use, if only to make you laugh and shake your head in disbelief!

cheers theory

skinnypuppy · (This post was last modified: 02-26-2011 05:02 PM by skinnypuppy.)

hi, first post here..

quite a novice on counting actually...

here's my gold count.

i also have a question about the part shaded in blue. how can a correction wave inside a (iii) have a 5 subwave structure?

feedback is highly appreciated Smile

***TS Hennessy*** · 02-27-2011, 12:46 AM

Hi skinny and welcome.

The 3rd wave would need to have a 5 of 3 and that would include an
RTB 4th which would include a C of 4 which is motive.

Since the B of 4 would set new trend ground the C of 4 gets isolated
with prior low and later high as does a non-RTB correction ( which is
the standard EW understanding for corrective formation ).

Make sense?

Smile