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Post Your S & P 500 Count Screenshots

This thread will be where the S & P 500 Count charts will go. Feel free to participate. It is lots of fun, helpful to others and great practice.


In the inset of this first pic below the waves that are yet incomplete are
greyed out and their placement does not indicate where price is
expected to extend or not extend.

[attachment=112]



Smile
Tom- I am confused. On the hourly chart, how can the February 2010 starting point be at 1040 be a "b" circle? Is that a typo? I would think it is an "a" or a "c" since the current trend is up.

I actually have that February 1040 as an "a" wave on one chart, and a "4" on the other. If it is a "4" then we have topped at 1219. If it was an "a", then 1219 was an rt"b" and we are in a "c" of the rtb4 down, with one last push up expected.

EDIT: OK, LOOKS LIKE YOU FIXED THE CHART TO SHOW IT WAS A "4". I HAD THAT SAME COUNT AS MY PRIMARY (SEE BELOW).

Tom's Edit: OOps. Yeah, I had just dragged 'n dropped the label which belonged on Mar. '09 and plunked it down on the similar looking terminal low. Careless of me. Thank you for spotting that. Sure makes a big difference doesn't it? Smile
Thanks Tom,

Ah yes. I was kind of expecting a 'top' which all the world can see is a clear 3. The UK, Australia and Hong Kong are all far more bearish than the U.S, and I'm glad Tom's count confirms what I suspected; we are now in the highly variable 'C' of 4 territory. Just to play devil's advocate the rise from 1180 on 28th Apr could be counted as a 5. In which case I have to ask whether it's possible that 'C' of 4 has been and gone and we are already on the way back up towards the final top. I guess we should know early next week. Here is an attachment to show what I mean. Red 2 is sharp for sure, but not clearly motive to me.
[attachment=98]
My primary count has primary wave 4 complete, and us headed back down below 666. My alternate count has us in the c wave of 4 of 4, with one last push up before primary wave 4 completes. Both charts are attached.

Primary Count:

[attachment=104]

Alternate Count:

[attachment=105]
Here is a chart I put together a couple of hours ago, it has worked pretty well so far, will review later.[attachment=110]
Hi Tom, Your thoughts on the S&P500 would be appreciated, and your thoughts about Cable too if you get the chance.

Cheers
Dan
(05-07-2010 10:30 AM)Steely Dan Wrote: [ -> ]Hi Tom, Your thoughts on the S&P500 would be appreciated, and your thoughts about Cable too if you get the chance.

Cheers
Dan

Here's my take:

[attachment=114]

Smile
Adrenaline finally stopped pumping from Thursday? I'm still twitchy and I'll explain why at the end.

When Tom labels a chart we know he will have checked all the avaliable detail and to the best of his ability, the supporting evidence will be there.

I then like to see if I can get the same outcome. First by working forwards in time and as a last resort, working backwards.

I have gone down to the 1 min level for my data source which is not true S&P but it's just to illustrate an idea.

[attachment=115]

On the chart a section which contains an RTB is in pink. The RTB itself isn't shown but was there on a different setting - whether it was by seconds or ticks doesn't matter, it was there.

Then I thought it would still be valuable to know where the C4 level was, so I have shown that as a horizontal arrow.

So if the .a is a valid interpretation it should have a 5-3-5 structure.

First 5 breaks down well and its 5th has been checked for the RTB, it's there so it's pink.

The middle 3 should contain an RTB in its final leg, it does and so it's pink.

The last section contains an RTB in its own right and then one in its final 5th - so the whole of it in pink with two C4s shown.

The 5-3-5 structure looks good rather than just being the first bit of a 5-3-5-3-5.

The next move down through the higher of those two C4s was a signal to go Short if you believe the count.

IF it's correct then the .a Price level marks the highest it can go until it makes a lower Low than the 3 by going down to the .b, reward:risk looks interesting!

If you missed the first chance, then the closer it gets back up towards the .a Price; the better the reward:risk gets.

Now for my finest hour on the FTSE. There was a similar set up on Thursday morning BUT the detail was not completely there, an almost but not quite scenario. I did not enter when the "C4" was breached, I waited until it came back up close to the maximum it could IF my count was correct.

At that stage the risk was only 8 pts and the minimum reward 100. All posted in real time, with chart, on the board I use in the UK and the rest is history.

It was either a skilled use (by me) of a magnificent new idea in how to arrive at a definitive count (from Tom) or it was complete luck (N.N.Taleb). I have not asked Mr. Taleb about this particular situation but if you have read "Fooled by Randomness" or "The Black Swan" I think you would be able to deduce his answer.

The only logical conclusion I could arrive at on Thursday evening was that I should stop trading with immediate effect.

If it was down to my use of NEWR, what chance have I of improving on that outcome? If it was down to luck, why should I get so lucky again?

I know myself well and what my mental strengths/weaknesses are. Attention to detail can be a strength but for someone who is prone to obessive/compulsive behaviour......?

The most likely outcome would be failure to reach the level of expectation set by those trades, I'd get frustrated and end up in a very destructive downward spiral.

I will continue to analyse and produce counts when it suits me BUT I will not be trading them.

Finally, many thanks for Tom for being so patient when I was learning the NEWR process.

cheers theory
[attachment=116]Here is my updated chart. I have us in primary 5 down, having already topped at 1219.

Note: I believe I am 1 degree off and my pinks should be green with the S&P getting ready to complete blue (1) of red [i] of primary 5 down with a drop below 1065 imminent.
Tom, Theory, Finster. Great stuff! As I posted earlier with regards to the Hang Seng the RTB C wave seems to act as a magnet for price action giving a very good risk/reward ratio trade - I think this may be a most productive way of using the NewR and easier to validate then finding a major pivot. The February lows of 1045 are imho important with regard to delta waves if you believe that sort of thing - A close below 1045 and I think I'm with Finster's preferred count.

Just one throw-away thought, the spike down was so severe that is it possible for waves to become so compressed time wise that they can't be validated?
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