theory
I edited to put in missing details on the .iii. I actually thought about that placement for a while but didn't put in the details. If that is fixed, then it has to be an "A because it can't go higher as of last night, plus now "a broke .iii, so it has forced the issue. For me, going to the 1-min chart now doesn't seem to break/enhance things further. (this was on 5-min chart, is not clear on the screengrab)
(11-16-2011 12:05 PM)amala Wrote: [ -> ]theory
I edited to put in missing details on the .iii. I actually thought about that placement for a while but didn't put in the details. If that is fixed, then it has to be an "A because it can't go higher as of last night, plus now "a broke .iii, so it has forced the issue. For me, going to the 1-min chart now doesn't seem to break/enhance things further. (this was on 5-min chart, is not clear on the screengrab)
Just seen the edit - thanks.
Isn't there a danger you are assuming your count is correct and labelling moves as they occur (so that they fit); rather than looking at the move, deciding what its structure is most likely to be and then seeing if it fits or not?
cheers theory
theory
I honestly don't know how to look at a move and decide if it's a 5 or a 3 definitely. I am having to go with a count until it is proved incorrect. Maybe it is not correct, but don't feel confident looking at a 1 min chart and saying it is a 5 or a 3.
For instance today I thought the *C was probably over, but price went higher. There was not a large RTB for the *C, but on a 1-min you have tiny movements in price which only technically qualify but may not be very large. Without knowing how much it should move, i don't know how to tell for certain, you can get a small RTB or a large one. I wouldn't know how to tell that at 11:25 *C was not finished besides that it had no SIGNIFICANT RTB. Maybe that's the best way.
Anyway this is what I have further
[
attachment=770]
I think Theory has a very good point. I find it’s all too easy to ‘count’ what I expect to see. There are a couple of different things I’m trying:
1. Just label the moves 3, 5 ,rtb 5; then look for an overall pattern that fits.
Some waves are tough to count, some not so much so. I’m finding that a least some moves really do count better as a 3, 5 ,rtb 5…and put more weight on those when looking for the overall pattern.
2. Do 2-3 alternative counts; and count the sub-waves. Often I will find that in one scenario quite a few of the sub-wave counts will just flow/fit/count well, rather than being more of a struggle to count.
In either case I try to look at the sub-wave detail down to one minute, to see if it fits well, even if I don’t label it. And, I’m trying to look for speed changes.
Anyway, here’s an alternate count. I’m not saying it’s ‘better’, just the count I have. I welcome comment or feedback.
[
attachment=771]
(11-16-2011 07:24 PM)amala Wrote: [ -> ]theory
I honestly don't know how to look at a move and decide if it's a 5 or a 3 definitely. I am having to go with a count until it is proved incorrect. Maybe it is not correct, but don't feel confident looking at a 1 min chart and saying it is a 5 or a 3.
For instance today I thought the *C was probably over, but price went higher. There was not a large RTB for the *C, but on a 1-min you have tiny movements in price which only technically qualify but may not be very large. Without knowing how much it should move, i don't know how to tell for certain, you can get a small RTB or a large one. I wouldn't know how to tell that at 11:25 *C was not finished besides that it had no SIGNIFICANT RTB. Maybe that's the best way.
Anyway this is what I have further
Hi amala, you used the word definitely, I didn't. My way of thinking is trying to decide, on the evidence at the time and then what appears later; which is the more likely.
At the end of your chart there is a move up which looks like it could be a five; as opposed to the three as you have it ( not saying which is correct).
If it is a five and it has since been re-trended, it tells us where we are and helps to clear up what the previous gap down drop must have been - it a very important clue. You would then want to have another look at what you had beforehand.
If it is a three, there are still many possibilities as to what its role might be.
So I look inside the move and try to find any further clues. There is another possible retrended five inside and it's inside the bit I think is the final five.
However, there is a whole section that could be anything and it's just where I don't want it to be - so the section is rated as a
finished ?.
The final
five is either in a five-three-
five or five-three-five-three-
five. So I know it is finished but not at this stage whether it is more likely to be a finished three or a finished five.
It will stay that way until something happens later that allows me to re-rate it.
cheers theory
(11-17-2011 12:51 AM)Perry Wrote: [ -> ]I think Theory has a very good point. I find it’s all too easy to ‘count’ what I expect to see. There are a couple of different things I’m trying:
1. Just label the moves 3, 5 ,rtb 5; then look for an overall pattern that fits.
Some waves are tough to count, some not so much so. I’m finding that a least some moves really do count better as a 3, 5 ,rtb 5…and put more weight on those when looking for the overall pattern.
2. Do 2-3 alternative counts; and count the sub-waves. Often I will find that in one scenario quite a few of the sub-wave counts will just flow/fit/count well, rather than being more of a struggle to count.
In either case I try to look at the sub-wave detail down to one minute, to see if it fits well, even if I don’t label it. And, I’m trying to look for speed changes.
Anyway, here’s an alternate count. I’m not saying it’s ‘better’, just the count I have. I welcome comment or feedback.
Hi Perry,
There is a lot in there that seems to have merit and I understand how you have counted the very tricky bit I have mentioned in the post above to amala.
There is one problem area I think.
Early on in the count you have a finished blue iii (green 11.5).
Then pink 12.a to 12.c (three) make a completed green 11.a (five), maybe you want to look at that bit again..........
cheers theory
(11-17-2011 05:28 AM)theoryman Wrote: [ -> ] (11-17-2011 12:51 AM)Perry Wrote: [ -> ]I think Theory has a very good point. I find it’s all too easy to ‘count’ what I expect to see. There are a couple of different things I’m trying:
1. Just label the moves 3, 5 ,rtb 5; then look for an overall pattern that fits.
Some waves are tough to count, some not so much so. I’m finding that a least some moves really do count better as a 3, 5 ,rtb 5…and put more weight on those when looking for the overall pattern.
2. Do 2-3 alternative counts; and count the sub-waves. Often I will find that in one scenario quite a few of the sub-wave counts will just flow/fit/count well, rather than being more of a struggle to count.
In either case I try to look at the sub-wave detail down to one minute, to see if it fits well, even if I don’t label it. And, I’m trying to look for speed changes.
Anyway, here’s an alternate count. I’m not saying it’s ‘better’, just the count I have. I welcome comment or feedback.
Hi Perry,
There is a lot in there that seems to have merit and I understand how you have counted the very tricky bit I have mentioned in the post above to amala.
There is one problem area I think.
Early on in the count you have a finished blue iii (green 11.5).
Then pink 12.a to 12.c (three) make a completed green 11.a (five), maybe you want to look at that bit again..........
cheers theory
LOL. I was just looking at Perry's count, and saw the same thing (3 waves for 11:a instead of 5). Was getting ready to post, then read Theory's and saw he noticed the same thing. It COULD be that 11:a is placed correctly, and that 12:a is really a 3rd wave, 12:b a 4th and 12:c the 5th, but you will have to confirm with more detail.
Perry- The move you have labeled 11:2 at the end looks like a 5 to me (especially on the 5 minute chart). I am wondering if your 11:1 is really 11:3, and 11:2 is a 5 wave move for 12:a. Just a thought.
(11-17-2011 07:01 AM)finster869 Wrote: [ -> ]Perry- The move you have labeled 11:2 at the end looks like a 5 to me (especially on the 5 minute chart). I am wondering if your 11:1 is really 11:3, and 11:2 is a 5 wave move for 12:a. Just a thought.
I also noticed the first 11:a. Those moves were why I did label the start the way I did (with .iii at Tuesday 11am)
I appreciate how you guys are trying to help with the counts. I think we are all in the same boat and trying to make the best of the information. Maybe we do it all slightly different, but just trying to make it everything fit. I am definitely open to other counts, i must admit i probably put myself into a box. That's why it's nice to have other people to bounce ideas/counts off of.
Finster what can you say about yesterday's move up makes sense, how would you fit that in? I am trying to see how the scales would put us in the bigger picture of where it needs to end.
(11-17-2011 05:28 AM)theoryman Wrote: [ -> ]...
There is one problem area I think.
Early on in the count you have a finished blue iii (green 11.5).
Then pink 12.a to 12.c (three) make a completed green 11.a (five), maybe you want to look at that bit again..........
cheers theory
Thanks for catching my mistake!
Perry