Here are charts of 3 scenarios
I’m trying Elwave for wave counting. It’s nice because wave labeling is a quick drag and drop.
However, they have there own wave degree symbols.
Primary is pretty standard 1-5, A-C in a circle
Intermediate is (1)-(5), (a)-(c )
Minor is 1-5, A-C
Minute is i-v, a-c
Minuette is underlined 1–5, a–c
SubMinuette is i.–v., a.–c.
I have not looked intraday to see if that would invalidate any of the charts below.
I would appreciate feedback, particularly if you see errors, or if something looks improbable.
Thanks,
Perry
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For all charts created using Elwave, the wave count and analysis were done manually and not generated by ELWAVE.
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Senario 1
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Senario 2
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Senarion 3
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Ok, just to play devil's advocate and using the tools I find hard to throw away. Looks like a trad EW leading diagonal doncha think? Well actually it's only some new work I'm looking at regarding delta cycles which prevent me from labeling the entire diagonal an ending one forming some giant C wave of 4 of C of 4 implying new highs. I have not been through it with a fine toothed comb but the constraints on wave 3 not being the shortest are useful here as 994 would invalidate this count and imply a market falling off a plate very soon.
Dan
(07-02-2010 06:48 AM)Steely Dan Wrote: [ -> ](...) which prevent me from labeling the entire diagonal an ending one forming some giant C wave of 4 of C of 4 implying new highs.
At least a C would have to have the bottom of its 3rd wave somewhere else, because there's a non rtb 4 following. Unless we're still working on b, which seems out of proportion. Any attempt to count a third wave within the rise from march 09 is highly dissatisfying. Reminds me of the guideline "If you have trouble counting it, it's likely a B.
Ruby, just to clarify - I was observing that taking Perry's secenario 3 as the operative count till the April top my count only differs in positioning my 2 and 4 where Perry has the blue i and ii on his diagram. The implications for this are that 5 down is over or nearly so as any trade under 994 invalidates it as wave 3 can't be the shortest motive wave. My first alternate would be that we are just about to enter 3 of 3 down and next week will be a repeat of the 1987 crash.
I think I'll go along with your count, finster. All my doubts were based on a false premise: that A often subdivides into a-b-c. I wasn't aware that the new rule requires it to be a 1-2-3-4-5. So there's no longer a reason to prefer an ABC over a 1-2-3... off the april top.
Of course, now I'm more than curious why Tom still sees new highs to come.
(07-04-2010 01:28 PM)ruby Wrote: [ -> ]Of course, now I'm more than curious why Tom still sees new highs to come.
I don’t have any idea what Tom’s chart looks like, but here is one scenario which I think suggests getting back to the April high at least.
The top chart was done in Elwave. Elwave has there own version of wave degree symbols:
Primary is pretty standard 1-5, A-C in a circle
Intermediate is (1)-(5), (a)-(c )
Minor is 1-5, A-C
Minute is i-v, a-c
Minuette is underlined 1–5, a–c
SubMinuette is i.–v., a.–c.
I would appreciate feedback, particularly if you see errors, or if something looks improbable.
Thanks,
Perry
****
For all charts created using Elwave, the wave count and analysis were done manually and not generated by ELWAVE.
****
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(07-07-2010 10:22 PM)Perry Wrote: [ -> ] (07-04-2010 01:28 PM)ruby Wrote: [ -> ]Of course, now I'm more than curious why Tom still sees new highs to come.
I don’t have any idea what Tom’s chart looks like, but here is one scenario which I think suggests getting back to the April high at least.
The top chart was done in Elwave. Elwave has there own version of wave degree symbols:
Primary is pretty standard 1-5, A-C in a circle
Intermediate is (1)-(5), (a)-(c )
Minor is 1-5, A-C
Minute is i-v, a-c
Minuette is underlined 1–5, a–c
SubMinuette is i.–v., a.–c.
I would appreciate feedback, particularly if you see errors, or if something looks improbable.
Thanks,
Perry
Perry,
I appreciate your input and charts of course.
I believe ELWAVE is proprietary software so their output is more than
likely protected by copyright. Unless you happen to know differently
and can show it in writing I would ask you not to post those resulting
count charts here.
I don't want to get in trouble needlessly.
Thx
( OH BTW - I see new highs due to this being a C with a 5th yet to go)
"OH BTW - I see new highs due to this being a C with a 5th yet to go"
What do you mean by "this", Tom? The move up from march '09? Or the move down from april?
Both, I guess. I just checked the details, and yes, it works: the move from july '09 to april '10 can be counted as an a-b-c for B of 4. It looked and felt like a B wave anyways. That would make the move down from april '10 a C of 4. Since 3 (starting at 777) was longer than 1 (starting at 666), C could take us to 666, or end anywhere above that (888 would be neat, taking us back to iv of 3), before 5 possibly takes us to 1576. That's the big picture. Now let's see, if we get the count on the present c down right. Especially in terms of degrees. Because once it's over, there will be a definite minimum goal for 5 (at 1219), which will be tradable.
The spx makes a nice (b) of an rtb between may 25 and june 21, but that doesn't work on the dow. So draw me a sheep, Tom :-)
(07-07-2010 11:06 PM)TS Hennessy Wrote: [ -> ]I believe ELWAVE is proprietary software so their output is more than
likely protected by copyright. Unless you happen to know differently
and can show it in writing I would ask you not to post those resulting
count charts here.
I don't want to get in trouble needlessly.
Thx
Hi Tom,
I appreciate your concern over output of proprietary software. In making the chart, I did not use any of Elwave’s automatic Elliott Wave count or count check tools, which to my understanding are based on traditional EW analysis. The counts were all done manually.
I use the program because manual wave labeling is a simple drag & drop, rather than entering labels using a text box; labels can be shown or hidden by wave degree; and it’s easy to change the degree of a label.
I did not think of it as being any different than any other charting program.
I will email Elwave and ask for permission to post charts that I create using their program.
Perry