New Elliott Wave Rule Forums

(04-20-2011 10:18 PM)TS Hennessy Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-20-2011 05:30 PM)Perry Wrote: [ -> ]Here’s my recent count. Comments and Feedback are welcome.

Perry

Check the possibility that your pink 12b-12c move is the b of RTB of 4
and that there would be more downside.

I have not done a detailed look at it there - just looking over your chart.

Hi Perry,
If you go to 5 min it opens up the possibility of Tom's suggested viable alternative.

The 11:1 to 11:2 looks much more like a five than a three.

The 12:a to 12:b looks much more like a five than a three.

So 12:b to 12:c needs looking at in detail, if everything else down to there fits.

So starting with your b at the last High.

IF 11.1 to 11:2 is an A (five), then down to 11.1 needs to be 1 2 3 - seems reasonably possible so far.

11:2 down to 12:b could then be the a (five)of the RTB (12:a to 12:b is the 5th of that five).

So 12:b to 12:c does need looking at.

Once a tricky section is completed you can check it by working forwards and then backwards.

Work backwards and put in the final five, with internal C4, then A, fit in RTB between, then indistinct 123.
Just before that is a smallish three but it's there.
What's left at the start is a very reasonable five.
That's only three subwaves 5-3-5, so it's the b of the RTB.

Whoosh down for the c of the RTB, so now we MIGHT only be in the C4 before it turns and makes a lower Low.

Hopefully you can follow the logic and use it with your data. I have saved a copy of my chart but I can't get it to transfer anywhere.

Apologies, took me a day to realise that I had so many applications running, that there wasn't enough memory available to carry out the process.

Data used is SB filtered to remove out of hours.

[attachment=577]

Added as an edit.

Didn't include this originally because it's a trading decision rather than a counting one. IF the count I propose has a probability rating of as low as even ~10%, then going Short yesterday, using mySB data supplier; was worth the risk at entry 1340.5

This covers ALL counts (both market open and Futures based 24 hr) where the last highest High was the top, plus where Steely's data has the b and he has terminated the C4 down too early and on your count where it rises out of hours BUT drops back under the b level on your chart ready for opening.

Risk to bank of new High costs 4.5, minimum reward will be ~ 45 (1340-1295). Reward:risk 10:1 which is better than 90%:10%.

Or using the concept of mathematical expectation: Consider 100 trades, 90 losers at 4.5 = 405, 10 winners at 45 minimum = 450 minimum, so minimum expectation = 450-405=45 which is positive, it's a must trade scenario.

So choosing to ignore the opportunity means you have to be at least 90% certain it's wrong. Even then it might be a "friendly wrong" i.e. one that drops, allows break even / some profit locking in, before making the next High.

cheers theory

Hi Theory,

Thanks for the detailed analysis and the chart. I was having trouble seeing the possibility that Tom was talking about. I realize now that I was too focused on the area from 4/12 on, instead of taking a fresh look at the whole move down from 4/8.

I agree the 11:1 to 11:2 does look more like a five than three; same for the 12:a to 12:b. On the other hand, it seems like I can reasonably count both of them as threes also:
[attachment=578]
[attachment=579]
For all charts created using Elwave, the wave count and analysis were done manually and not generated by ELWAVE.

I’d appreciate any comments or feedback.

Thanks,
Perry

(04-26-2011 12:02 PM)Perry Wrote: [ -> ]Hi Theory,

Thanks for the detailed analysis and the chart. I was having trouble seeing the possibility that Tom was talking about. I realize now that I was too focused on the area from 4/12 on, instead of taking a fresh look at the whole move down from 4/8.

I agree the 11:1 to 11:2 does look more like a five than three; same for the 12:a to 12:b. On the other hand, it seems like I can reasonably count both of them as threes also:


For all charts created using Elwave, the wave count and analysis were done manually and not generated by ELWAVE.

I’d appreciate any comments or feedback.

Thanks,
Perry

Hi Perry,
Looks like the market preferred your count!

I declined the opportunity to take any profit and had set up a rather chunky free position based on that last top, including out of hours, holding.

From a technical point of view it was an interesting experience - amazing how the out of hours and market open data, kept all possibilities open until today; then whoosh.

The other point it brings home is the difficulty in deciding if something is a three or a five. NEWR allows a much better attempt IMO because of the need for the pattern before each pivot, including every internal one. Problem is, of course, the information available at the shortest timeframes is often very difficult to interpret.

Hope the trade continues to go well, nice piece of work.

cheers theory

Hi Chaps. Again here is my latest prior to peeking at other people's counts. As an aside I will start actively covering cable soon as we are within sight of the 1.7030 we need before the dollar is in a position to strengthen based on the current long term count.

My count of the move up since April 18th.
[attachment=581]
My wave degree labels are chosen somewhat arbitrarily

(04-28-2011 08:06 AM)RayH Wrote: [ -> ]My count of the move up since April 18th.

My wave degree labels are chosen somewhat arbitrarily

Hi Ray, I wanted to count it as you have, but I could not convince myself that your .a wave could have 5 sub-waves.

I have us finishing pre-holiday at the top of a 'B' wave. I have included a 5 min chart this time but confidence isn't high, though I never trust 'breakouts' last thing on a Friday.

P.S Cable still needs to tag on a few hundred pips before I start looking for it's long term turn.

Well the market wanted up a bit longer due to the news - What better way to end a 'B' wave?

Quick edit to add that I still suspect we need to complete red 4c before we make a new high. Invalidated below the blue line at 1360.8 or by a new high of course.

Looks like the news spike contained the red 4c now playing for blue boxed 4C which may be in at the low.

(05-03-2011 01:20 AM)Steely Dan Wrote: [ -> ]Looks like the news spike contained the red 4c now playing for blue boxed 4C which may be in at the low.

Looks good Steely!